TSP Talk Blog

Stocks rallied hard for a second straight day as the Dow gained 285-points on Wednesday, and the 2-day rally has recovered 554-points of the 871-point Brexit sell-off. We've seen repeated "V" bottoms over the last couple of years as investors chase the rallies off the lows out of fear of missing out, and in the past that fear was warranted. But a test of the major lows is not out of the question and it has actually happened twice in the last year, which you'll see below.
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Stocks bounced back on Turnaround Tuesday, erasing Monday's losses in many indices as oversold conditions drew in value hunters. The Dow gained 269-points as the swings remain wild. Whether you are bullish or bearish on this market, we expected some kind of relief rally. The question after something like this is whether the upside can sustain itself, or if it sets up a sell the rally effect.

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The selling continued on Monday which is not a big surprise when we have a day like the one we had on Friday. The losses were steep as the Dow shed another 261-points. That 871-points in two days. This type of action does not usually result in a "V" bottom, but instead a rebound, and another test of the low, which may or may not hold. And to expect new highs in the S&P 500 any time soon may be too optimistic. But that doesn't mean we won't have tradable rallies this summer. ...

Stocks were rocked on Friday by the unexpected Brexit vote after polls and bookmakers were predicting that it was not going to pass. Stocks don't like surprises and investors were not positioned for that kind of outcome, and so we saw a major move down. The Dow lost 610-points on the day and we're seeing some of the indices down testing the May lows now.

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Stocks opened sharply higher on Thursday as late surveys showed the British were leaning toward staying in the EU, and as the day went on, more polls got stronger in the remain side. The Dow ended the day up 230-points. The question after that was whether, in fact, that was going to be the referendum result.

Update: The Leaves have it and apparently Britain may be leaving the European Union. The polls have been close but this is quite a surprise and the market stock futures are down ...