TSP Talk Blog

6/21/12

Stocks were flat to modestly lower most of the morning yesterday before the Fed's policy statement when we got the usual post-Fed fireworks. After all was said and done, the indices were basically flat with the Dow losing 13-points.

Daily TSP Funds Return G-Fund: +0.004% F-fund: - 0.03% C-fund: - 0.16% S-fund: - 0.15% I-fund: +0.80% More returns

For the first time in 6 days, the S&P 500 did not make a higher high. The indicators are stretched to the overbought side and as you can see in this chart there is some resistance overhead, and the rising wedge(s) could pose a problem as they tend to break to the downside.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Bond yields also bounced around after the Fed meeting and the 10-year yield is still struggling to get back above the 20-day EMA, which has held for 11 weeks. When yields go down, bond prices and the F-fund go higher.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

As we talked about yesterday, the S&P 500 had been up for 3 consecutive days leading into an FOMC policy statement day, and 15 of the last 15 times that had previously happened, the market closed higher on the day of the meeting. So yesterday's modestly lower close broke that long trend.

We also have a 9 year trend of losses the week after a June option expiration and right now the S&P 500 is up about 1% on the week with 2 days of trading left. Will this trend be broken also? We'll see.

Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley

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