TSP Talk Blog

Stocks had a difficult time choosing a direction yesterday, but it was one of those games where the last one with the ball was going to win - and yesterday, that was the bulls.



The stocks funds had one of their more calmer days, but the S-fund did manage a 2% gain. In a "normal" world, 2% is usually a huge one day gain. Not so in this quarter. The bond fund finally saw a nice move higher as long term yields moved down sharply.
The S&P 500 has been able to hold that 840 level but it is a little difficult to say whether it is still because of the government's willingness to bailout banks, or if it's just typical holiday week trading action.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com

We know that historically stocks do quite well the Wednesday before and Friday after Thanksgiving Day, then pull back some on the Monday. But I'm not sure we can count on typical market action.


Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

The indicators are still leaning toward oversold and overly bearish, but they are a lot closer to neutral levels then they have been in a week or two. A good test of this rally will come if / when this indicator moves into overbought territory. Market strength has been halting quickly once we get over that -0- level lately.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com

The dollar seems to be struggling to make a new high stick. We've seen a large pullback over the last two days; breaching the 20-day moving average on the downside, and heading quickly toward the 50-day moving average.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com

The PMO indicator above has given a very clear sell signal, so we need to keep an eye on this. If the weakness continues, the I-fund would be back into consideration for anyone choosing to be in the stock funds.

The markets and TSP are closed tomorrow but will be back in business on Friday, although the NYSE will be closing 3-hours early that day.

That's all for today. I hope everyone enjoys their Thanksgiving holiday. I should be here for a brief update on Friday morning.