TSP Talk Blog

5/04/12

A quick commentary this jobs report Friday. Investors seemed jittery in front of today's important employment report as the Dow lost 62-points.



For the TSP, the C-fund was down 0.75% yesterday, the S-fund lost 1.49%, the I-fund fell 0.05%, and the F-fund (bonds) gained 0.05%.

The S&P 500 flirted with the 20-day EMA and temporarily moved below the support line. It looks like it could go either way from here. A rally would make the current formation look like a bull flag (bullish). A breakdown here would look more like a lower low (bearish). The indicators are giving equally conflicting info.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The pullback in the Russell 2000 nearly filled the open gap that we have been watching. We suspected that we could see 800 and a surprise jobs report could do that today.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Estimates for the April jobs report are looking for a gain of 162,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 8.2%.

The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 36% bulls, 55% bears, for a bulls to bears ratio of 0.65 to 1. That is a buy signal which means the system will remain 100% S fund for next week.

Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley


The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.