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A day of rest

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Stocks tried to add onto Monday's big gains yesterday, and they hung on pretty well most of the day, but a late decline took the indices into the red by the close. The Dow lost 44-points.



For the TSP, the C-fund was down 0.27% yesterday, the S-fund fell 0.58%, the I-fund lost 0.30%, and the F-fund (bonds) gained 0.22%.

Technically, there were no real changes to the chart of the S&P 500, although the recent higher high allows us to draw a new rising support line (blue) connecting the two prior lows.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Bonds and the F-fund rallied yesterday and the yield on the 10-year treasury pulled back below the 200-day EMA. It is now on the verge of testing the open gap that would be filled if it hits 2.12%.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk


There is also a small open gap near 2.03%. I don't know if that one will get filled, but I'd be surprised if we don't see 2.12% in the coming days. That would help the F-fund.

Back to the seasonality chart: I don't normally put this much emphasis on seasonality outside of major holidays, but this March has done pretty well in following the historic pattern.



Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

Unfortunately for the stock market, the next three days have the lowest percentage of times being positive during the month, so if the chart continues to follow the historic seasonality, we could see some negative numbers the rest of the week.

There are only 22 trading days this March and with Friday being the end of the first quarter, there is a possibility to see some window dressing from money managers looking to improve the appearance of their portfolios. Considering this, I'm surprised to see that the 22nd and 23rd days show an historic percentage of less than 50%.

Thanks for reading! We'll see you tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


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Comments

  1. rebel346's Avatar
    Are you a PA?

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