TSP Talk Blog

11/26/11

Not Your Traditional Thanksgiving Week

Stocks were pummeled during the normally bullish Thanksgiving week. It was the worst Thanksgiving week since 1932.

Europe can't get out of its way, the U.S. can't figure out how to cut the deficit, and the collapse of the hedge fund MF Global is still sending shock waves throughout Wall Street.

Let's make this quick during our holiday weekend.

For the TSP, the C-fund lost 4.66% on the week, the S-fund dropped 5.88%, the I-fund fell 6.325%, while the F-fund( bonds) also lost 0.10%, and the G-fund was up 0.03%.



For the month, the C-fund is now down 7.34%, the S-fund has lost 8.79%, the I-fund has fallen 11.35%, while the F-fund (bonds) is still up 0.04%, and the G-fund has gained 0.1209%.

Support on the S&P 500 was of no help. The 50-day EMA has turned down again keeping it below the 200-day EMA so it looks like our bear market is going to resume. That said, I would not be surprised to see a big rally this coming week.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Why? Just to fool us. I am seeing a lot of "I give up" attitudes out there and the market does like to snap back when enough people throw in the towel.

The question will be, will we have to sell any rally or will December be its normal bullish self? December has been positive 76% of the time since 1950. Of course November is second on that list being positive 70% of the time, and look where that got us.

We'll need a monster month to see the stock funds turn positive again for the year. We had one in October, but we will need a lot help from a Santa rally to pull it off.

Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.

Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
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