TSP Talk Blog

I'm glad you reported so early this night. It will be interesting what the mkt does the next two days. A little more drop and it will be at Oct.11 levels. Some say what comes out of the next European confab on Sunday will not entirely please the mkt, but they will try to spin things in such a way that the mkt will come away feeling it got at least a couple of jelly beans it can happily munch on. We'll see. Almost every day there is some unpredictable develpmnt out of Europe, either pos. or neg. It has become a completely dark room.

Just got a reply from my cousin in Germany about all this. Found out something I didn't know. Here, in English: "There is plenty to quarrel about over the rescue plan. What is important is that the euro survives and toward that end Greece must be supported. In any case, it must be clear on the Greek side that some things in their country have got to change. It cannot be that a pension can be inherited by the next of kin (!) and also there must be more savings in other public spheres; otherwise, this matter can get very touchy for all of Europe. In any case, we are angry that Germany once again must "donate" so much. In our own land there is plenty that needs attention and should get precedence."

Well, there you heard it from the horse's mouth.

Yeah, I would like to see this mkt hold back or even pull back for a while. At least till the end of this week! Gosh, Monday will be anyone's guess. Monday way up (Oct4), Monday smartly down (Oct11), now what? I've learned in the past that sometimes it's better to eat part of your loss than double it. Pride goeth before a fall.

I hear France and Germany are very concerned about being too generous with Greece as they want to keep their AAA credit rating.

Hopefully we can party like it's 1998 come the end of the year!

When should we see the next golden cross - before the end of November? I'm buying in anticipation of the event.

1999 hardly had any death cross period at all - going back and forth within the month of October alone; 2011 crossed back on August 22. This ain't no 1999, or summer 1910 (the double fake out death cross, or was it triple?)

Not apples and oranges. More like oranges (1999), and a pile of used toilet paper (2011), where someone wants to use the other side to make the crap go away.

BT doesn't have any dry powder in G/F to buy anything in his TSP, so he's not buying, he's holding.

If there is a golden cross, it is possible to have a reverse fake-out, and go lower again depending on the holiday sales, europe, and other factors. WalMart traffic declines released today (~-7%) from last year, are no cause for optimism.

Originally Posted by Birchtree

When should we see the next golden cross - before the end of November? I'm buying in anticipation of the event.

I would bet heavily that you said the same thing in 2008 when the 50 approached the 200...



Is this another 2008? I don't know. I have my doubts since stocks are a lot cheaper now (P/E wise). But the debt crisis in Europe could keep the pressure on.

Jim Cramer just wrote that the Europeans will probably sacrifice their AAA ratings to backstop their banks.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11285...t-to-fail.html

Two interesting articles in MarketWatch: Time to short this euro-zone optimism, by Jeff Reeves, financial journalist, can be summed up in one sentence: the mkt may have already priced in a favorable resolution to the euro zone debt crisis, which means to me it may go up some more (1250) if things work out next week but not much more. The other article has more to it: Leverage debate undercuts euro summit, by William L. Watts. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tim...ism-2011-10-21
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/lev...mit-2011-10-20