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TSP Talk Blog

Discuss Market Comments 03/18/11

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Beware the rebound - Stocks rebounded nicely on Thursday with Dow jumping 161-points. I'm not complaining but there is a long way to go before this market is out of the woods...

Market Commentary for 3/18/11

Current Daily Market Commentary

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Comments

  1. Myemal's Avatar
    thx for the tip about >2 ift's and the G fund - it's nice to know it doesn't have to be 100% G after 2 (which is what I thought)
  2. tsptalk's Avatar
    No problem. I get asked that often as it doesn't seem to be common knowledge.
  3. crws's Avatar
    Tom, you feeling hedgy? Is it the price of the dollar that has you concerned?
  4. tsptalk's Avatar
    Hi crws -

    It's not the dollar, but the breakdown in the charts. If the S&P can get back in the triangle and 50-day EMA, I will feel much better, but these sharp sell-offs usually test the lows again before bottoming (that's if the test holds). I Just hope I have cash and some IFT's ready should we do that.
  5. Myemal's Avatar
    Any suggestions for tracking all the after-hours activity that's moving the markets? It's been a bit since an opening was close to a closing.
  6. EmoDx's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Myemal
    thx for the tip about >2 ift's and the G fund - it's nice to know it doesn't have to be 100% G after 2 (which is what I thought)
    You can transfer less than 1% into a fund 9 times in a month (max).

    Day 1 any type of transfer
    Day 2 any type of transfer
    Day 4 <1% transfer from 1 fund into a fund with x.001% or higher
    Day 6 <1% transfer from 1 fund into a fund with x.001% or higher
    Day 8 <1% transfer from 1 fund into a fund with x.001% or higher
    <continue on>

    You can't do a <1% trade every day because the system isn't real time. If you want to exercise this option you need to start with a minimum of 1% in the fund you want to trade into. Check Squalebears account thread for more info.

    You would use this method if you burn up the two unrestricted IFT's early in the month due to volatility and the market then later takes off. The flip side is you always have to have skin in the game. Even if it is only 1% in C, S, I, if the market is tanking fast, these 1% exposures will eat your minimal G fund gains.

    Even so, if you were in this plan and wanted to, you could increase from 3% upwards to 28% equity exposure after your two regular IFT's. Or, you used the lifecycle funds at 1% could go from ~6% exposure to the equity markets to 62% if the markets went positive each and every trading day of the month.

    When I get some time I am going to put together a manifesto on how to use this to your advantage. Best of luck,

    -E
  7. EmoDx's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Myemal
    Any suggestions for tracking all the after-hours activity that's moving the markets? It's been a bit since an opening was close to a closing.
    Don't worry or lose sleep over it too much. If it happens after hour you can't really act on it. Remember the TSP isn't a trading platform. Even if you make an IFT after hours it won't go into effect until after market close.

    IMHO the only indicators to look at after hours is the currency market and the broad international market. While you can't affect an immediate trade, you can gather enough info as to weather to dump or pump the I fund and to a lesser extent the US funds.

    I am not really consistent enough in this to offer advice or what to look for, but you may have different results.

    - E
  8. Myemal's Avatar
    Thx for the info =)
  9. gporterie's Avatar
    "As a reminder, we have a limit of 2 interfund transfers (IFT) per month, but after #2, you can make additional transfers as long as only your G-fund allocation increases."

    Very nice to know we can to get more conservative in stages -- thanks Tom!

    My experience has been that the additional transfers cannot "reallocate" into other non-G funds. For example, my third IFT can be:

    • from (60% G + 40% S) to (80% G + 20% S)

    However, I was unable to go from:

    • from (60% G + 40% S) to (75%G + 20%S + 2% I + 3% F).

    Gaston
  10. tsptalk's Avatar
    Correct. Ony the G fund can increase in allocation after #2.

S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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