TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

The action this week was choppy for stocks and returns across indices were mixed. Earnings reports and partial trade deals kept investors' attention for the week. The U.S. and E.U. eased trade tensions this week with partial trade deals and hold off on tariffs were initiated. This pushed stocks up Wednesday but there is still a lot of possibilities ahead to keep investors questioning progress. For now the trade worries will be more exclusively turned towards China.

Earnings reports were mostly positive but negative reactions from traders were more heavily weighted towards poor reports while the strong reports were not equally celebrated. Expectations for earnings are high and this plays out to work against stocks.

Stocks gave back gains from earlier in the week on Friday but the S&P 500 kept some of those gains to record its fourth week of gains in row. The sell off Friday erased all the gains in small caps and more to push the S-fund down 1.56% to lag the TSP funds. The I-fund led the TSP funds with more than a 1% gain. Bonds fell this week but are staying the damage seems to be minimal at the moment.

Next week more earnings reports will be coming in from mostly secondary names but we traders will be looking forward to Apples report on Tuesday.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending July 27th:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) matched the highs of January right before the sell-off. That marked the highs for the week and the index retreated Friday to close an open gap from Tuesday. There is a number of support lines below the current price so it would be possible to see another test of the January highs next week depending on how the earnings reports turn out. The C-fund was up 0.61% for the week.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) continues its struggle to move past the highs of June. The failure to do so gave way to a sell off on Friday that sent the index down 1.56% for the week to lag the TSP funds. The lows were marked at the 50-day EMA so the trend line continues to be a place for consistent support. This is coupled with a rising trend line but the bears do have the momentum at this point. We will see if the sell off scared or attracted buyers for Monday.




EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) again led the TSP fund in gains this week and managed to close an open gap from June while opening another early in the week. The index moved above its 50-day EMA and kept rising from there. The open gap from May is not far but to fill the gap would be a big move up. The I-fund was up 1.34% for the week.




AGG (Bonds / F-fund) fell again this week but instead of falling more to fill the open gap below, the index bounced between its 20 and 200-day EMAs acting as resistance and its 50-day EMA acting as support. There is a lot of room for this index to fall and is showing bearish technical signs that could dissuade investors from buying bonds. The F-fund was down 0.17% for the week.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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