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TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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Emotion and speculations over the potential outcomes of the trade "battle" between the U.S. and China produced a volatile week that ended on a down day. Stocks sold off early in the week but traders jumped at the lower stock prices until stock indices were in positive territory on Thursday. The release of the March jobs report Friday came out before the bell with numbers under expectations which added to the negative pressure the futures were under after the new tariff comments from President Trump. All that added up to a very negative day for stocks.

Selling accelerated after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin mentioned that there is the potential of a trade war during a CNBC interview. Traders are nervous about the outcome of the tariff exchanges between the U.S. and China and its threat on global economic growth. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made the comments that it is too early to predict what would be the full economic impact of a trade war with China. This is true but investors are sensitive and have trouble with uncertainty.

Earnings season is on its way and has the potential to get indices out of their recent funk or make things worse. Take your pick.

The I-fund outperformed this week with a moderate gain of 0.14% while the other TSP stock funds were down more than 1%. The F-fund was just under even for the week.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending April 6th:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) continued to trade between its 20-day and 200-day EMAs. There is some potential of more resistance from the action in March but there is an open gap above to combat the pressure. The C-fund was down 1.35% for the week to lag the TSP funds.




The Wilshire 4500 Completion Index (S-fund) is in similar shape but did not get to test its 200-day EMA Friday but rather bounced off the lows of early March. It will probably take a good earnings season to put this index back above its 20 and 50-day EMAs. The S-fund was down 1.25% for the week.




$IEE (EAFE Index / I-fund) produced gains for the week after falling early. The index gapped up Thursday and moved above its 20-day EMA. It produced a little more gains Friday rather than sell-off with U.S. stocks and fill its open gap. The I-fund was up 0.14% for the week.




AGG (Bonds / F-fund) had trouble early in the week but became a safe haven for traders during the sell-off in stocks Friday to erase early losses. The index has traded above its 50-day EMA for more than a week but must move above resistance rising trend lines and its 200-day to continue its pace. The F-fund was down 0.05% for the day.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)
Source: https://finance.google.com/finance