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TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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Stocks slipped this week as the Senate put out their version of the tax bill which had a few significant contrasts with the House version. One contrast is the Senate plan would delay the corporate tax-rate cut until 2019 rather than 2018. This put some heat on smaller companies dropping the expected increase in earnings next year with the tax-cuts. Large caps pulled back as well but not with the magnitude of small caps.

A drop in the junk-bond market was also given credit to the drop in stocks this week. Some say this is a telling sign of economic problems approaching, although there are few signs of that yet. The bears are arguing this week is the beginning of the end of this bull market. This is more wishful thinking than an obvious actuality. This hiccup in the continuing rally is more telling of what the market might actually react to; that has been confusing over the past few months. New entry points are available for the bulls who still have momentum on their side and have had a chance to see which levels of support lines are holding.

All the TSP funds were down for the week except for the safe G-fund. The S-fund took the largest loss this week with a loss of 0.78%. The C-fund drop the least with a modest loss of 0.14% for the week. Both the I and F-fund were down 0.4% for the week.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending November 10th:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) dropped below the support line of the trading channel that has held since mid-August. The 20-day EMA was just below to hold as support. The index closed just below the trend line for the week. The C-fund dropped 0.14% for the week.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) was pushed into a wedge of a rising support line and 20-day EMA acting as support and the pressure of the early highs of October. The index broke below the 20-day EMA but did find support Thursday with its 50-day. The index closed between the 20 and 50-day EMA. The S-fund lagged the TSP funds with a loss of 0.78% for the week.




EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) dropped down from the rising resistance line to fill an open gap from the previous week. The index continued to drop the Friday to close below its 20-day EMA which it hasn't done since August. There is another open gap below that is intersecting with the 50-day EMA. The I-fund dropped 0.4% for the week.




AGG (Bonds / F-fund) began to sell-off Wednesday and opened down on Friday where it closed near its lows for the week. This produced an open gap and put bonds below the 20 and 50-day EMA. An open gap from the end of last month was closed Friday. The F-fund was down 0.4% for the week.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)