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TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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Stocks kept within a tight range to start the week off as anticipation of the FOMC meeting kept traders at bay. The Fed did raise rate basis 25 points and forecast two more rate hikes this year. Traders, most likely initiated by trading programs, bought the Fed rate hike and we saw decent rallies in stocks and bonds. The bulls failed to build on Wednesday's rally and instead we saw some profit taking to pull stock back a bit and again stocks ended the week in a tight trading range.

The I-fund led the TSP funds with more than a 2% gain for the week. The S-fund was half a percent behind while the C-fund lagged the TSP stocks funds with about a quarter of a percent gain for the week. The F-fund was up about a half a percent bonds attempt to recover the March losses.

Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending March 17th:

Although the SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) could not capitalize off the Fed induced rally as we saw in the S and I-fund, the index did stay above support leaving some room above to attract buyers this coming week. This of course will depend on what the media will feed traders but the index is in a good short-term spot from a technical standpoint. The C-fund ended the week with 0.28% gain.

The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) got some help from support on Tuesday and was able to create a decent day out of the Fed rate hike rally. The index also did a good job at keeping those gains from the rally rather then giving some back like we saw in large caps. There was an open gap produced Wednesday morning so it is plausible to think money might flow from small caps to big caps based on how both indices are set up at the moment. The S-fund produced 1.54% in gains for the week.

EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) led the TSP funds this week after rallying past overhead resistance followed by two more days of slight gains. This index does have two open gaps below the current price but it is typical to see open gaps in EFA. The I-fund produced 2.08% in gains for the week.

AGG (Bonds / F-fund) also joined Wednesday's rally as they may have been oversold so far in March. The rally action did close an open gap but bonds couldn't move past the 50-day EMA Friday so this could be a hurdle for bonds if they are to fill the open gap above and regain the March losses. The F-fund was up 0.52% for the week.

Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.

Tommy Crowley
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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S&P 500 (C Fund)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)