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TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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Buyers were back to work this week after the slight pull-back last week from the relentless upside we've seen since the election. Stocks produced gains everyday this week giving the C-fund more than a 3% gain and S-fund a more than 4% gain. Most market analyst have given up on the underlying reason for the constant rise in stocks we've seen in the last month and the only logical credit is momentum. Predicting a top is futile and risks being left behind if incorrect. So the best defense for those in the action is to be on your toes and ready to react when the rest of the trading world is ready to sell.

One thing to keep in mind is that next week we will likely see an increase in interest rates from the Fed for the fist time in a year. Last year's rate hike negatively affected the market the couple of month following. However, this recent action has taught us that the market doesn't always react how it should or has in the past. It is a new market environment so traders will need to adapt to survive.

The F-fund lagged this week with the only loss for the TSP funds.

Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending December 9th:

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) is facing resistance yet again next week but has hardly had an issue moving past resistant lines lately. Last weeks pull-back left some room for rising support in the case that things do turn south for the index. The C-fund produced 3.13% in gains this week.

The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) broke through the resistance that forced last weeks pull back on Wednesday and closed above it the following two days. The index opened up on Monday so an open gap was left behind. However that did not slow the index down. The S-fund led the TSP funds this week with a 4.43% gain.

EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) also produced gains this week as it broke out of its falling trading channel Monday. Following the break out, the index moved above its 200-day EMA and left behind two open gaps. EFA is now not too far from an open gap left behind in September. The I-fund produced 2.92% in gains this week.

AGG (Bonds / F-fund) broke above the falling trading channel its been in since mid-November on Wednesday. However, the continual increase in stocks pushed the price back within the trading channel. The F-fund lagged this week with a 0.27% loss.

Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.

Tommy Crowley
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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S&P 500 (C Fund)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)