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Scribbler's Macroeconomic View

My opinions concerning the macroeconomic outlook, and how they will affect the markets.

  1. A 2010 Forecast

    The following appeared in Scribbler's TSP & Economic Update on December 30, 2009:


    <style type="text/css"> <!-- @page { margin: 0.79in } P { margin-bottom: 0.08in } --> &nbsp</style>Like most other newsletter writers, it falls upon me to write about some of the trends that I believe will appear in the coming year. Of course, it is somewhat silly to try and narrow what trends will develop and cease within a 12 month ...
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  2. The Implications of the Federal Reserve as a Systemic Regulator

    One of the most important ideas in the United States government is the separation of powers, and the role that each branch of government performs. Briefly described, Congress makes the laws, the President enforces laws, and the Courts ensure laws are administered justly.

    When it comes to the Federal Reserve, however, it exists by creation of Congress and is charged with a mandate of maximum sustainable growth and maximum employment. The appointment process is a political one: with ...
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  3. Will Gov't Let Them Pay TARP Back? To Me, It's Doubtful

    The news this morning is that some firms, primarily Goldman Sachs, want to return their TARP funds. With the political outcry, these firms view the proposed compensation regulation as excessively restrictive and as an impetus for the best employees to leave.

    For a while, I have thought that the government will not allow firms to return TARP funds. There are a couple of reasons for this view.

    First, it is important to note where the government is now as compared to when ...
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  4. Critics of AIG Contracts Had an Easy Choice

    I listened a little to some of the outrage today surrounding the AIG bonuses. Even the President of the United States has weighed in on the subject, directing the Secretary of the Treasury to use all available tools to ensure that the contracts and bonuses are not honored.

    From my view, a contract is a contract. They get the bonuses. Do I have to like it? No. Do they have to have earned the bonus to get it? I don't know -- the contract says what they have to do to get a bonus. ...
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  5. A Repost of a Comment

    Earlier this week, a reader asked me as to whether anyone could have predicted our current morass. I replied to him today -- admittedly later than I would have liked to respond -- but I thought the response was decent enough to warrant the attention of the regular readers of the blog, rather than be relegated to the comments section and get buried by future blog entries.

    I think the concept I write about is extremely important -- thinking. Now, people might view it unfavorable that ...
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