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  1. The seasonality factor vs. the charts

    Stocks tried to hold up on Friday but as the day wore on, the buyers disappeared and the indices drifted lower all afternoon. The Dow lagged losing over 1% while the broader indices held up a little better.

    Volume was below average so there was no panic, and that could be a good thing, or bad. Panic selling tends to lead to snap back rallies but the lack of volume could also mean the selling was not done by the money managers, which may be considered the smart money.
  2. TSP Talk Weely Wrap Up

    The market saw two good days of positive action this week; the first Tuesday and the second Thursday, both accompanied by a rally in oil. The gains of those days were each wiped out the following days. On Wednesday it was because of sell offs in Disney and retail stocks. On Friday it seemed investors were showing signs of giving up as each rally was sold, and the selling pushed the market into negative territory for the week.

    TSP stock funds were all down again with the S-fund ...
  3. Key Support Areas Being Tested

    Mean returns & standard deviations for each fund for past 3-5 years-5-14-2016-10-16-34-am-jpg

    Last week, I posted this same chart of the NYSE and noted the mixed picture that various technical indicators were painting. I felt that the stock market could go either way. After one week, we see that prices fell for the 3rd straight week on the NYSE, with most of those losses coming on Friday's sell-off.

    Looking at the candlestick structure I see an area (between the blue lines) where support is likely to be found. Note that the upper ...
  4. Dow and S&P flat, but broader indices down

    Stocks were flat to lower on Thursday as the Dow and S&P ended the day about where they did on Wednesday, but the broader indices did not fare as well with the Nasdaq, small caps, and particularly the Dow Transportation Index, all closing with losses.

  5. Disney and retail are now on sale

    Stocks opened lower on Wednesday, and stay low as most of Tuesday's big gains were erased. The Dow lost 217 after gaining 222 on Tuesday. Disney was the big loser for the Dow, and after that, anything retail related got clobbered.

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S&P 500 (C fund)
Dow Completion (S fund)
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