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Best Return for February

February provided more opportunity for TSP participants to wring out returns from this market. The C-fund price rose 5.34% through the month only to be in the shadow of the S-fund's 6.03% return. Five TSP Talk AutoTracker members were able to get even more out of February. These five members stood out among the hundreds of other TSP Talk AutoTracker members, but one was an outlier among them.

February's TSP Talk AutoTracker monthly ...

Stocks gapped up on Thursday morning after the favorable PCE / Income and Spending reports came out before the opening bell. The gap was quickly filled soon afterward and then the bulls went on their merry way into the close. The Nasdaq led as the AI headlines keep tech hot. The I-fund lagged - probably because of the late push higher in US stocks that did not get priced into the overseas markets. Bonds were up as yields dipped on the PCE data.

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Greetings (Last Chart Revised)

Here's a yearly projection, followed by a March Projection, capped off with a 9-day word of caution.

February 2024 was a phenomenal month, across the previous 63 years from 1961:

This Feb ranked as the 7th best of 64 Februaries with a 5.17% monthly gain.
Jan & Feb together rank as the 13th best of 64 with a 6.84% YTD gain.

While not a quarterly stat, at 11.57% this Dec/Jan/Feb together rank as the 9th best ...

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A little more backing and filling in the indices yesterday in front of today's important PCE Prices and Personal Income / Spending reports. The Dow was down 23-points but actually closed at the highs of the day, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were choppy and posted modest to moderate losses. The S and I-funds were down as well and lagged the large caps returns as they were trying to fill in some recently opened gaps. Bonds were up as yields slipped lower, and the dollar was up.
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It was a quiet day of trading yesterday with stocks mixed although mostly higher. The Dow was down but that was due to the heaviest weighted stock being down 3% on the day, but otherwise the relentless rally in the S&P and Nasdaq continued as investors squeamishly watch the indices test the recent highs. Small caps led on the upside again with both the S and I-funds closing at new highs for the year. Bonds were down and continue to struggle.

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