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TSP Talk Sentiment Survey results for the week of 03/30/15- 04/03/15
The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 40% bulls, 42% bears.
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Stocks traded in a fairly tight range on Friday with the bulls winning the battle as the Dow gained 34-points. It wasn't exactly a capitulation from the bears, but the S&P 500 was able to close well above the Thursday lows for a 2nd straight day. The bulls do have some more work to do, but it looks like they haven't given up quite yet. It's getting close to do or die.
It was a horrible week, perhaps it's a good time to follow it up with a rally.
For the S&P 500, the 4th week of March (week 12 of 52) closed down -2.23% this is the 2nd worst week this year, the 20th worst over the past 21 years, and the 61st worst over the past 66 years.
Contrasting upcoming week 13 against an up/down week 12 from 1950-2014
We show the last 65 week 13s have an average 52% winning ratio with .13% average returns
It was a harsh week for investors starting with a sell off into Monday's close and from there we said goodbye to last week's big gains. Wednesday's losses were the greatest sting of the week as stocks fell sharply most of the day. Stocks leveled out a bit on Thursday however it was the fourth straight day the S&P 500 closed in negative territory. We finally saw a green day on Friday but the gains weren't impressive and the day had little movement. Whether it becomes the start of a new leg up is
And I feel fine…
Here's a 2-month 30-minute perspective, based off the February bottom
With a lower low followed by a higher high, and trading just above 50% of wave AB, I'd rate this as neutral with a bullish bias
Loosely translated, we have both a Double Top/Bottom with price in the upper half of Wave AB, I'd rate this as neutral with a bullish bias