View RSS Feed

All Blog Entries

  1. Busy week ahead

    Stocks opened up deep in the red on Friday, but once again the market reversed and closed modestly higher. Does that mean another Monday morning rally? Maybe, but we have a busy week on tap and I expect we will see some volatile news generated swings.

    The market started down on Friday after the Senate could not pass a bailout plan for the auto industry. Later in the day, President Bush talked about possibly using TARP money to help, and the market seemed to embrace that suggestion. ...
    Categories
    Uncategorized
  2. Still Bullish

    Friday's action saw the intraday reversal I expected. While the volume on the upside has been light, so has the volume on the downside. The market is showing remarkable resilience. Sellers have been relatively reluctant and buyers cautious. So where are we?

    The VIX is still very elevated. The TED spread has fallen to about 191 basis points. The TED spread is now down 275 basis points in two months. The 2-year swap spread is up 2.95% to 104.75 basis points.

    The Libor-OIS ...
    Categories
    Uncategorized
  3. Will Santa bring coal this year?

    Stocks sold off again yesterday sending the C and S TSP funds down 2.8% and 4.6% respectively. The I-fund managed a 0.4% gain on weakness in the dollar, and some positive fair valuation payback.
    The
    S&P 500 has now filled the gap at 879, which we suspected was coming. Now it is coming down toward the recent uptrend support line, which if broken, could lead to a move back down to at least 815. Unless something happens between now (Thursday about 12:30 AM ET) and the market opening ...
    Categories
    Uncategorized
  4. Waiting

    Despite some decent gains in the major indices, the market seems to be on hold waiting for something. Perhaps it is waiting on the outcome of the auto industry bailout, or perhaps it is just the season to be inactive.

    The S&P 500 was up and down all day yesterday, finally closing the day up an impressive 1.2%. Small caps did even better. But the rally came on very light volume, and once again, the market put in an inside day. That is two days in a row of lower highs and higher ...
    Categories
    Uncategorized
  5. I'm not seeing the bullish case yet

    After a two-day rally, stocks took a break. The C and S funds were off 2.3% while the I fund faired a little better, being off just 0.50%. Bonds continued their rally as the F fund gained 0.45% on the day.

    From Friday's low to Monday's high the S&P 500 had jumped over 12%, so it was reasonable to expect a pullback. As bad as the 2.3% appeared, neither the bulls nor the bears could take charge as the chart shows us that the index put in an inside day, meaning the yesterday's high ...
    Categories
    Uncategorized
SPY (C Fund)
DWCPF (S Fund)
EFA (I Fund)
AGG (F Fund)