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  1. Waving the white flag

    From our 2/27/09 daily market commentary:

    Stocks opened to the upside yesterday and gave us the start of a rally that some of us have been waiting for. By midmorning, things turned south after the new budget plan was revealed. Not only are we fighting an economic crisis, but the help that is needed, seems to be hurting the market as well. What can we do but wave the white flag?



    The new administration is
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  2. When you see a fork in the road, take it

    We are at a very tough position. The S&P is either bottoming here, or is about to fall off a cliff. You can see that we have seen similar situations in the last year and they have gone in different directions. I took my shot at the long side and after an IFT Thursday morning, I'm done with that. It didn't really work out.

    With what the gov't is doing I don't feel very good about the market for the next few weeks. It should have rallied by now.

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  3. Tests - for the market, and for us

    The long awaited test of the S&P 500 November lows is upon us as yesterday's low was 742, just missing the 741 low in November. The lows will be tested, but so will we.

    I have the uncanny ability to jump into trades too early, usually just before the serious damage is done. I was blinded by the nice setup in the indicators, while the chart of the S&P 500 continued to look dismal. We have been waiting for three months for a test, which we thought was inevitable, yet I let the ...
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  4. What's it Going to Take?

    We've seen some pretty serious market events the past few months or so and it just seems to keep getting worse. I've been monitoring the analysis I receive from Stratfor and they have so far not presented any material that would indicate we are getting close to turning the corner. Unfortunately, the economy was the one area they gave themselves an "F" in out of all the geopolitical events they covered last year.

    That didn't necessarily mean they didn't have a clue about the economy. ...
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  5. TSP Newsletter Claptrap, Economist Claptrap Can Both Hurt

    The January/February TSP newsletter arrived in the mail a few days ago. Many of you probably received it as well "TSP Highlights" and the letter from TSP accompanying the annual statement.

    In my opinion, both are complete and utter rubbish. Take Highlights -- which exults the benefits of dollar cost averaging as a method to mitigate risk. This proposed risk mitigation strategy has been an immense failure -- but the theory need not be based on observable fact, but on mere faith. ...
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S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)
Source: https://finance.google.com/finance