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09/04/13

Stocks opened sharply higher Tuesday morning, producing a gap up opening on many indices. That gap was closed within a couple of hours however, and the Dow spent most of the afternoon in negative territory before a late push higher gave the Dow a 24-point gain by the close. ...

09/03/13

Stocks saw modest losses on Friday, although small caps and the I-fund took bigger hits. The Dow lost 31-points on the day, a day with an historically positive bias. This week has a weaker than normal historical bias, yet the futures are up sharply Monday night, so it ...

Last week, our sentiment survey was bearish (bullish) as was the AAII survey. I was anticipating the market would bias higher for the week, but geopolitical headwinds helped to trump that outcome. Volume is low, seasonality is negative and liquidity has been weak. Our sentiment survey did see a few more bears and a few less bulls for next week and that is moderately bullish. But AAII showed a move from bearish to neutral with a lot fewer bears and that doesn't help. I note that the Syrian situation ...

Things started out pretty well for the stock market in August, but it didn't take long to fall victim to the summer doldrums and give us its typical seasonally below average performance. There were some ups and down, but last week's 1.8% to 3.2% losses in the TSP stock Funds cemented the final negative returns for the month.



Here are the weekly and ...

For the short term, a rebound is very possible at this juncture in the market. SPX has dropped nearly 5 % from a 1709.67 high, early in the month to 1627.47 on Wednesday of this week. Will the fall continue or is there a chance of a rebound? There are many indices and factors one could look at, but I examine cycles in this blog. Notice on the SPX chart below the prominent cycles from April of this year. We have a 37 and 46 day cycle that combine to form a larger 83 day cycle traversing late ...