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  1. Seasonality, sentiment, and oversold

    The market... terrible. Economy... a mess. Sentiment... woeful. Maybe that means it's time for a little rally?

    After Wednesday and Thursday's drubbing, stocks put together a huge rally in the last hour of trading on Friday after Obama selected Timothy Geithner as the new Treasury Secretary.



    In a normal market environment, these type of Friday afternoon reversals tend to carry into Monday morning, but ...
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  2. TGIF

    Wow! Not much more to say. Just, wow! OK, see you Monday...

    Still here? Alright, lets talk about the carnage. I'm guessing that if you are still reading these commentaries that you may have had some money in the G or F funds as anyone who has taken the full brunt of this market collapse in 2008, probably has something better to do on a Friday than talk about it.

    Another 5.1% to 7.5% declines in the stock funds. The L2040-fund is now down about 43%. There haven't been ...
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  3. Can we open our eyes yet?

    I was watching the news earlier this evening and of course the newscaster covered the continued sell-off of the markets today. He said the market has now sold off enough to wipe out the gains over the last 11 years.

    I've only been in TSP for 6.5 years and both the C and S fund share price this evening are well below the price where I began buying, which was right at $10 a share. The I fund has about $1.50 to go yet to the break even point of where I began buying into it.
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  4. A day late and a dollar short

    This is a tough commentary to write as I don't know whether to laugh or cry. The carnage continues and the TSP limits and deadlines are adding to the pain.

    I did not like the action but I wanted to wait until Thursday (IFT on Wednesday morning) to get back into the G-fund after a short stint in the stock funds. Tuesday was OK, as the S&P finished higher. I received my IFT confirmation and it said I made my transfer at 10:22 AM on Wednesday. At the time, the S&P 500 was flirting
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  5. True Alpha?

    I recently read an article by a Hedge Fund manager who seemed overly confident in his decision to be buying up certain types of bonds that have almost a 'guaranteed rate of return'. Yes, this trader has done exceptional in this mess, but a there's a few things I had to shake my head about. He claims to not to benchmark his returns but instead just makes money.

    Most mutual funds today, for example, benchmark to a Lipper Fund Index of comparable holdings. Benchmarking a Small Cap fund ...
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S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)