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  1. Tests - for the market, and for us

    The long awaited test of the S&P 500 November lows is upon us as yesterday's low was 742, just missing the 741 low in November. The lows will be tested, but so will we.

    I have the uncanny ability to jump into trades too early, usually just before the serious damage is done. I was blinded by the nice setup in the indicators, while the chart of the S&P 500 continued to look dismal. We have been waiting for three months for a test, which we thought was inevitable, yet I let the ...
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  2. What's it Going to Take?

    We've seen some pretty serious market events the past few months or so and it just seems to keep getting worse. I've been monitoring the analysis I receive from Stratfor and they have so far not presented any material that would indicate we are getting close to turning the corner. Unfortunately, the economy was the one area they gave themselves an "F" in out of all the geopolitical events they covered last year.

    That didn't necessarily mean they didn't have a clue about the economy. ...
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  3. TSP Newsletter Claptrap, Economist Claptrap Can Both Hurt

    The January/February TSP newsletter arrived in the mail a few days ago. Many of you probably received it as well "TSP Highlights" and the letter from TSP accompanying the annual statement.

    In my opinion, both are complete and utter rubbish. Take Highlights -- which exults the benefits of dollar cost averaging as a method to mitigate risk. This proposed risk mitigation strategy has been an immense failure -- but the theory need not be based on observable fact, but on mere faith. ...
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  4. When Will the Next Cyclical Bull Commence?

    If the bears could have taken it down past 740, then why didn't it happen yesterday or today?

    There are so many people who are still fighting the last war here. My cousin is buying a house here soon and he's going to get a $7500 tax rebate. Guys, this is like buying a house and not having to pay for closing costs. He's going to use that 'rebate' money to put a on a new roof, water heater and windows in the house (windows and water heaters also bring a tax rebate).

    The ...

    Updated 02-19-2009 at 04:48 PM by Bullitt

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  5. Unraveled

    From our 2/18/09 daily market commentary:

    The market broke down again yesterday, convincingly breaking the wedge formation, and handing the TSP stock funds losses of 4.5% to 5%. The F-fund was the recipient of a flight to quality while stocks were being pummeled.

    For the second time in three days, the S&P 500 broke below the wedge support, this time closing there. The PMO indicator is back in sell territory and while we could see a snap-back rally soon, the danger
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S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)