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  1. The wedge breaks down, but there's a case for the bulls

    Stocks drifted down most of the day, but a late spike higher kept things under control. The Dow dropped "just" 60-points, but this time the S&P 500 and small caps were the laggards.

    The C and S funds were hit hard dropping 1.8% and 2.4% respectively, while the I-fund, with the help of more weakness in the dollar, lost just 0.45%.

    The S&P 500 finally gave a convincing break to the downside ...
  2. Seasonality vs. the overbought bear market

    Stocks rallied sharply after the announcement of the auto bailout on Friday, as the Dow moved up about 200-points, but just like we saw after the financial bailout, the gains were quickly given back and the Dow finished down 25-points.

    The S&P 500 and small caps did manage to hang on to some gains with the C and S funds moving up 0.25% and 0.92% respectively. The I fund dropped about a percent as the dollar rebounded from its recent precipitous drop.

    The S&P ...
  3. Fear is diminishing - good or bad?

    Stocks struggled all day but things really fell apart after Standard and Poors (S&P) revised their outlook on GE's credit rating from stable to negative. The TSP funds dropped 2% to 3% with the I-fund taking the largest hit after the dollar rallied 1.5%.

    The S&P 500 broke through the lower end of the rising wedge pattern mid-day, but did squeeze back in by the close. The bears would say that it is now on the precipice of a potential sell-off if the S&P does break, but the ...
  4. Stocks have calmed down, but not everything has

    Stocks pulled back a bit yesterday after Tuesday's big rally. No big surprises. Volume was light, seasonality strength is still holding, but the charts are looking for something to break.

    I am running late tonight (it's Wednesday night as I write) so rather than speculate, spew conjecture, and make predictions, I am just going to show you some charts that are making the headlines.

    The S&P 500 remains in the rising wedge pattern, has resistance above and support below. ...
  5. 0.00%

    Stocks rallied strongly after the Fed announced that they were cutting the Fed Funds rate to "a range of 0% to 0.25%." The C fund gained 5% on the news, while the S and I funds jumped an amazing 6% each.

    I am not an economist, so I don't know exactly how to interpret this. On the one hand, there is a phrase that you "don't fight the Fed", meaning if the Fed is cutting rates, don't bet against the stock market. Yesterday's rally proved that. On the other hand, many ...
S&P 500 (C Fund)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)