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  1. The wedge breaks down, but there's a case for the bulls

    Stocks drifted down most of the day, but a late spike higher kept things under control. The Dow dropped "just" 60-points, but this time the S&P 500 and small caps were the laggards.



    The C and S funds were hit hard dropping 1.8% and 2.4% respectively, while the I-fund, with the help of more weakness in the dollar, lost just 0.45%.

    The S&P 500 finally gave a convincing break to the downside ...
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  2. Seasonality vs. the overbought bear market

    Stocks rallied sharply after the announcement of the auto bailout on Friday, as the Dow moved up about 200-points, but just like we saw after the financial bailout, the gains were quickly given back and the Dow finished down 25-points.

    The S&P 500 and small caps did manage to hang on to some gains with the C and S funds moving up 0.25% and 0.92% respectively. The I fund dropped about a percent as the dollar rebounded from its recent precipitous drop.

    The S&P ...
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  3. Fear is diminishing - good or bad?

    Stocks struggled all day but things really fell apart after Standard and Poors (S&P) revised their outlook on GE's credit rating from stable to negative. The TSP funds dropped 2% to 3% with the I-fund taking the largest hit after the dollar rallied 1.5%.

    The S&P 500 broke through the lower end of the rising wedge pattern mid-day, but did squeeze back in by the close. The bears would say that it is now on the precipice of a potential sell-off if the S&P does break, but the ...
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  4. Stocks have calmed down, but not everything has

    Stocks pulled back a bit yesterday after Tuesday's big rally. No big surprises. Volume was light, seasonality strength is still holding, but the charts are looking for something to break.

    I am running late tonight (it's Wednesday night as I write) so rather than speculate, spew conjecture, and make predictions, I am just going to show you some charts that are making the headlines.

    The S&P 500 remains in the rising wedge pattern, has resistance above and support below. ...
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  5. 0.00%

    Stocks rallied strongly after the Fed announced that they were cutting the Fed Funds rate to "a range of 0% to 0.25%." The C fund gained 5% on the news, while the S and I funds jumped an amazing 6% each.

    I am not an economist, so I don't know exactly how to interpret this. On the one hand, there is a phrase that you "don't fight the Fed", meaning if the Fed is cutting rates, don't bet against the stock market. Yesterday's rally proved that. On the other hand, many ...
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S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)