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  1. Turtle or Rabbit?

    And whoís winning the race under Bear Market Rules?

    Note: As of last Friday Iím 100% F-fund, out of IFTs, and watching for the next swing low in stocks.

    Iíll be the first to admit I lack patience. Combine this with a lack of discipline, throw in a dash of poor timing and presto youíre number 197 on the tracker. Somewhere there is a lab full of blind monkeys outperforming me and one little overlooked Turtle.

    That Turtle Iím referring to is AGG (loosely
    ...

    Updated 07-29-2009 at 08:37 PM by JTH

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  2. Time to Buy?

    Tracking and assessing the Seven Sentinels performance on the tracker is not going to be as easy as thought it was going to be. My original thought was that I was going to trade strictly on the Seven Sentinels signals. But the whipsaw trading action we've had is forcing more interpretation of the signal than I expected. And it's skewing the performance numbers.

    The SS gave a buy signal early on in this latest leg higher. But the typical internal set-up one would expect to see leading ...
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  3. Can Tech alone lead us higher?

    Just cruising over the charts, I canít help but notice the lack of enthusiasm from many of the charts. The good news is the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average have put in higher highs.

    However, along with most everything else, those same charts have put in lower swing lows than the previous swing lows. So the big question for me is where will the next swing low be? Will it be higher or lower?

    Sometimes I like to watch the price action on the
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  4. My Hunch Was Correct

    In my last blog I mentioned that I was worried about the H&S being a bear trap in spite of the weakness that we were seeing at that time. As we saw it not only played out as a bear trap, but the strength of the move caught a lot of traders by surprise.

    I had a SS buy signal last week, but the typical set-up for a buy signal was not there. We basically did a 180 in short order (no pun intended) and have quickly improved market internals, but not necessarily enough to be comfortable. ...
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  5. Leash your dogs...

    I'm leaving town on a last minute TDY for a week or so. To top it off, my kids were walking our dogs and one of my dogs was attacked by 1 of 2 loose pit bulls. Unfortunately the police had to kill the pit bull on site, and I ended up spending my evening at the Vet with a very lucky-to-be-alive dog.

    So I'll keep it short...

    The S&P 500 is still trading within the channel I'm watching. I did keep 5% each in CSI for such an occasion so I don't feel too bad about pulling
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S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)