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  1. Where's the Santa rally?

    Stocks dipped again yesterday as the Dow dropped 100-points and the C, S, and I-funds lost 1%, 0.75%, and 1.3% respectively. Isn't Santa supposed to be coming to town? The strong seasonality actually begins today, so we'll give him another chance.

    The S&P 500 is actually acting "normally" considering the abnormal season period. The rising wedge broke down after a fake out breakout to the upside of the descending trading channel. Normal. Once the wedge broke, it fell back ...
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  2. The wedge breaks down, but there's a case for the bulls

    Stocks drifted down most of the day, but a late spike higher kept things under control. The Dow dropped "just" 60-points, but this time the S&P 500 and small caps were the laggards.



    The C and S funds were hit hard dropping 1.8% and 2.4% respectively, while the I-fund, with the help of more weakness in the dollar, lost just 0.45%.

    The S&P 500 finally gave a convincing break to the downside ...
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  3. Seasonality vs. the overbought bear market

    Stocks rallied sharply after the announcement of the auto bailout on Friday, as the Dow moved up about 200-points, but just like we saw after the financial bailout, the gains were quickly given back and the Dow finished down 25-points.

    The S&P 500 and small caps did manage to hang on to some gains with the C and S funds moving up 0.25% and 0.92% respectively. The I fund dropped about a percent as the dollar rebounded from its recent precipitous drop.

    The S&P ...
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  4. Fear is diminishing - good or bad?

    Stocks struggled all day but things really fell apart after Standard and Poors (S&P) revised their outlook on GE's credit rating from stable to negative. The TSP funds dropped 2% to 3% with the I-fund taking the largest hit after the dollar rallied 1.5%.

    The S&P 500 broke through the lower end of the rising wedge pattern mid-day, but did squeeze back in by the close. The bears would say that it is now on the precipice of a potential sell-off if the S&P does break, but the ...
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  5. Stocks have calmed down, but not everything has

    Stocks pulled back a bit yesterday after Tuesday's big rally. No big surprises. Volume was light, seasonality strength is still holding, but the charts are looking for something to break.

    I am running late tonight (it's Wednesday night as I write) so rather than speculate, spew conjecture, and make predictions, I am just going to show you some charts that are making the headlines.

    The S&P 500 remains in the rising wedge pattern, has resistance above and support below. ...
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S&P 500 (C fund)
[Chart]
Dow Completion (S fund)
[Chart]
EFA (I fund)
[Chart]
Bonds (F fund)
[Chart]