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  1. The Bear 500 update.

    The Bear 500 update.

    Back in November in the blog
    The Bear 500!!! I posted a somewhat humorous view showing the market's reaction to the absurd 500 SMA.

    Check out the two pictures I posted in the blog and compare them to this picture below. I find it somewhat interesting that the sideways trading began right when we broke through that average. It's also interesting that last Friday we tested that average...

    Nice Thread on another Board-sc-png ...

    Updated 01-31-2010 at 02:23 PM by JTH

  2. Weekend Update

    Here We Go Again, Going Back to G-2010-fund-allocation-~-top-15-chart-3-jpg
    Here We Go Again, Going Back to G-total-cash-stock-exp-~-top-15-chart-1-jpg

    My Top 15 sold some I fund Friday and raised more cash. This group never got overly bullish, which may be telling us what we already know. That risk is elevated. Interestingly, there's still a sizeable position in the I fund so some of the traders in this group are certainly not afraid of risk.

    Here We Go Again, Going Back to G-2010-fund-allocation-~-top-50-chart-3-jpg
    Here We Go Again, Going Back to G-2010-cash-stock-exp-~-top-50-chart-1-jpg

    The Top 50 is telling us cash is the place to be this ...
  3. Putting my Bear hat on.

    Putting my Bear hat on.

    This is the master chart I use to view the overall heath of the S&P 500. From appearances this chart is telling me this is the strongest pullback we've seen since the March lows. This has me putting my somewhat dusty bear hat back on and heading to the defensive G-Fund EOB Monday.

    On the candlestick chart I've outlined what I believe to be key areas of support based on price, and two Fibonacci levels. A break (& 2-day confirmation) below
  4. TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up - 01/30/10

    Weekly TSP Wrap-up from TSP Talk

    Fast Start, Slow Finish

    After starting the new year with a big positive week, the stock market fizzled the rest of the month leaving investors with stiff losses, and while it wasn't as bad as January 2009, starting the year in the red has many TSP participants concerned for 2010.

    For the week, the C-fund was down 1.62%, the S-fund lost 1.98% and, with the dollar rallying last week, the I-fund dropped 2.87%. The G and F funds ...
    TSP Weekly Wrap Ups
  5. Buy & Hold

    Cry & Fold?
    1150 rejects

    A while back, I did a blog called Stop, Drop, & Roll based on the 1987 Stock Market crash. I used that blog to illustrate how moving averages can serve as warning signs. One of the reasons I like moving averages so much, is because they tend to line up support/resistance levels on multiple time frames. Here are some S&P 500 timeframes with the popular 20/50/100/200 SMA/EMAs. The SMAs are solid, the EMAs are dashed.

S&P 500 (C Fund)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)