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  1. True Alpha?

    I recently read an article by a Hedge Fund manager who seemed overly confident in his decision to be buying up certain types of bonds that have almost a 'guaranteed rate of return'. Yes, this trader has done exceptional in this mess, but a there's a few things I had to shake my head about. He claims to not to benchmark his returns but instead just makes money.

    Most mutual funds today, for example, benchmark to a Lipper Fund Index of comparable holdings. Benchmarking a Small Cap fund ...
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  2. Is my own fear justified, or too intense?

    The market's action lately has me close to the peak of fear. I know that when my level of fear rises, I should be prepared to think like a contrarian because my instincts, like the rest of the "dumb money", are usually wrong near market extremes.

    The S&P 500 is playing with that 840 area that is basically a make or break level for the short-term, and possibly the intermediate-term. If it holds above it, we could see a decent rally. If it breaks below, it could be "look ...
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  3. Introduction

    Hey Guys and Gals,

    Welcome to my new blog. I'm going to try and write articles geared for the newbies to Gov't or TSP Talk. I'll cover topics such as a broad overview of TSP, on-line access, interfund transfers or IFT's, fair valuation or FV's, TSP funds, TSP Talk tracker, posting to TSP TALK message board, TSP Talk paid services, etc..

    Most of the information you see here will come from TSP.gov, TSPTalk.com, and our message board. Valuable information is buried in the ...
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  4. Investment Ideas

    There are literally hundreds of thousands of investment newsletters, stock pickers, fund managers, and market timers out there that charge yearly subscription fees for people like us to obtain market insight. I'm not going to get into any specific paid services or my individual reviews on the services I do subscribe to, but I have found a few hidden gems out there for those who may not want to try a subscription based service due to cash constraints.

    I'm sure most of us can agree that ...
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  5. Now or never

    When I see a daily return in the stock market with a "1" in front of it these days, it almost seems like it was a flat day. The S and I funds lost "only 1.8% and 1.6% respectively. The C fund was down 2.6%. Of course a 1% move used to be considered large, but not in this market environment.

    The S&P 500 dropped below that 866 level I would have liked to have seen it hold. The reason I was watching the 866 area was because it was the 50% retracement of Thursday's ...
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S&P 500 (C fund)
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Dow Completion (S fund)
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EFA (I fund)
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Bonds (F fund)
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