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Stocks were blindsided on Thursday by a very strong ADP weekly employment number that more than doubled estimated. The Fed has been waiting for the labor market to weaken so they can stop raising interest rates and this was anything but weak. Perhaps it was a one off report, but investors went scrambling just in case. We'll get the June jobs report this morning and yesterday's data suggests that this number could be hot as well, but you never know as these reports seem to be unpredictable. Maybe ...

Wednesday saw what we might consider a post-holiday reversal, and I'll get into that a little more below, but suffice it to say, stocks pulled back modestly after last week's pre-holiday rally. We did see some buying after the initial opening decline, so the bulls are not dead by any means, but with the S&P 500 gaining about 17% in the first half of the year, perhaps it won't be so easy in the second half. The dollar was up making the I-fund the laggard, and a pop higher in yields gave the ...

We saw some normal light volume holiday action on Monday as traders and short sellers typically take a day like that off, so the market is mostly impacted by inflows which led to modest gains. The I-fund was flat as the dollar ticked up, and bonds were down as yields rallied on the recent stronger than expected economic data. The rest of the week has an historically bullish bias, but there's always the chance of a post-holiday reversal.

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The stock market ended a big month with another rally on Friday after a favorable PCE prices report gave us evidence of easing inflation. We saw 1% plus gains in most of the broader indices. The soft report also sent yields down helping bonds and the F-fund to a good day as well. The pre-holiday activity felt like pre-holiday action with the bears heading off to their weekend hot spots. Trading volume did tick up, most likely because it was the last trades of the 2nd quarter for money managers. ...

What Happened this Week?

The Bulls were back in business this week. The S&P 500 recovered the previous week's losses and then ended the week with its highest price for 2023. The bears had an influence after the Federal Reserve's hawkish pause soaked in, but economic data shifted that influence back to the bulls claiming a bull market.

Jerome Powell was front and center to start the week as he took questions from congress members for two days. Investors were ...