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  1. Volatile chop continues

    The ping pong match continued yesterday as the 175-point gain in the Dow on Monday was wiped out by a 181-point loss on Tuesday. So that's a 185-point decline on Friday, a 175-point gain on Monday, and a 181-point loss on Tuesday. And looking at the S&P 500 chart, it is all taking place within support and resistance lines within the right shoulder of a head and shoulder pattern.

    ...
  2. New 2016 highs in oil propel stocks


    Stocks reversed the Sunday negative night futures market and rallied at the open on Monday. The Dow gained 175-points - not quite getting back the 200+ it lost on Friday, but the S&P 500 and small caps did recover and surpass Friday's losses.

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  3. The seasonality factor vs. the charts

    Stocks tried to hold up on Friday but as the day wore on, the buyers disappeared and the indices drifted lower all afternoon. The Dow lagged losing over 1% while the broader indices held up a little better.

    Volume was below average so there was no panic, and that could be a good thing, or bad. Panic selling tends to lead to snap back rallies but the lack of volume could also mean the selling was not done by the money managers, which may be considered the smart money.
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  4. TSP Talk Weely Wrap Up

    The market saw two good days of positive action this week; the first Tuesday and the second Thursday, both accompanied by a rally in oil. The gains of those days were each wiped out the following days. On Wednesday it was because of sell offs in Disney and retail stocks. On Friday it seemed investors were showing signs of giving up as each rally was sold, and the selling pushed the market into negative territory for the week.

    TSP stock funds were all down again with the S-fund ...
  5. Key Support Areas Being Tested

    Mean returns & standard deviations for each fund for past 3-5 years-5-14-2016-10-16-34-am-jpg

    Last week, I posted this same chart of the NYSE and noted the mixed picture that various technical indicators were painting. I felt that the stock market could go either way. After one week, we see that prices fell for the 3rd straight week on the NYSE, with most of those losses coming on Friday's sell-off.

    Looking at the candlestick structure I see an area (between the blue lines) where support is likely to be found. Note that the upper ...
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S&P 500 (C fund)
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Dow Completion (S fund)
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EFA (I fund)
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Bonds (F fund)
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