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Going to cut is short again, I'm just getting caught up from being out of town.
While the previous week 15 was a solid above average week, this has been a weaker than expected April, so I'm tamping down the SPX's end of month projection to 2% from the previous 4% projection.
For the SPX 6-Month Daily chart, we've hit a Double top. For the bulls, we've made a higher high, but for the bears, we failed to get a solid higher close, so it's a draw.
The current rally really has a lot of experienced traders wondering just how much higher the stock market can go since the February bottom. It's very hard to predict a top; especially when global markets are being propped up by liquidity. What I can predict is that a top will come eventually.
Here is a 3 year weekly chart of the S&P 500. We can see that the bull market largely hit its peak in the Spring of 2015; almost 1 year ago. Since
Stocks were up this week with back to back rallies Tuesday and Wednesday to contribute the bulk of the gains for the week. The rest of the days were a mix of slight to modest moves depending on your index of interest. All three indices representative of the TSP stock funds are sitting under resistance at their current prices; we have seen Dow Completion Index (S-fund) and EFA (I-fund) surpass their 200-day EMAs recently which is a sign of strength as the 200-day EMAs can represent decent resistance
Stocks traded in a fairly tight range yesterday, slipping lower in the morning, rallying midday, and fading into the close. Most indices were basically flat on the day with the Dow ended the day with a gain of 18-points, the S&P 500 up 36 cents, the Nasdaq down 2-points, and small caps were off 0.20%.
Stocks rallied for a second day, which is the first time we've seen back to back gains since the last week in March. The Dow jumped 187-points and the bulls are trying to take charge after the highest close since early December.