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  1. Melting Up

    Officially, the period for a Santa Clause rally began today and lasts through the first two trading days of January. And right now we are ahead of schedule, given the rally started three days early.

    I Give Up!-santa-jpg

    Bearish? Or opportunity for out-sized gains?

    Part of the reason for the follow through today was attributed to an agreement in Congress to approve a two-month extension of the payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits.
  2. Tis the season


    Stocks remained buoyant all day in a typical, low volume, holiday trading day. The Dow closed up 62-points.

    For the TSP, the C-fund gained 0.85% yesterday, the S-fund was up 0.87%, the I-fund made 0.63%, and the F-fund (bonds) added 0.06%.

    The S&P 500 continues to form the right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders pattern ...
  3. Sentiment Survey Results: Dec 27 - Dec 30

    TSP Talk Sentiment Survey results for the week of 12/27/11- 12/30/11

    Sell: The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 71% bulls, 19% bears, for a bulls to bears ratio of 3.74 to 1. That is the highest ratio since this same week last year in December 2010.

    That is a big sell signal i
    n a bear market which means the system will remain 100% G Fund for the week of 12/27/11 - 12/30/11, but last year the seasonlity won out and we saw modest gains.

    Bear market rules
  4. Santa, Is That You?

    I believe it is, although you can still find disbelievers.

    Forum Icons-santa-clause-waving-jpg

    After seeing the market walk up to the brink of what was looking like a potential correction during the most favored time of the year for stocks, the market has roared back over the past three days. In that time, the S&P 500 has risen about 4%.

    We did get some domestic data early in the day. Third quarter GDP advanced a mere 1.8%, which is less than the 2.% growth ...
  5. Not bad


    Stocks had every reason to do a little pulling back yesterday after Tuesday's 337-point gain, yet the early losses turned into small gains by the close. The Dow closed up 4-points.

    For the TSP, the C-fund gained 0.20% yesterday, the S-fund was up 0.27%, the I-fund lost 0.21%, and the F-fund (bonds) lost 0.19%.

    I look at this as a victory for the ...
S&P 500 (C Fund)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)