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Stocks ended a choppy week of trading with some flat to mixed results on Thursday. We saw small gains in the Dow and S&P 500 (C-fund) while small caps led and the I-fund was down on another rally in the dollar. The F-fund was down as yields moved higher. We saw some good returns in the stock market in March making it 5-straight months with a gain for the S&P 500. That's actually a good sign.

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March 2024 was yet another phenomenal month. Compared with the previous 63, this March 2024 ranked 21 of 64 with a 3.10% monthly gain.

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While it's still too early to make a call, based on YTD data (31 years filtered) we might speculate (or project) a yearly 96.8% win ratio with an average gain of 18.58%.

___The chart below shows where we currently fall within the 63-year historical YTD range. Here we can ...

The personal-consumption expenditures price index (PCE) results went public during the market's day off on Friday. The PCE landed right in line with expectations with a yearly climb of 2.5%. The market typically likes predictability, but this inflation data did little to change the projections for a rate cut in June. In fact, the chances of a rate-cut in June are down from a week earlier.

The market celebrated the Fed’s message in the Federal Open Market Committee’s ...

The stock market loves to fool investors (or market timers) as much as possible, so just as we all got used to strong openings followed by late sell offs, the market threw us a curve on Wednesday and gave us a strong open and a stronger close. The Dow gained an impressive 478-points, and while it was a fairly broad rally, it took that late push higher to move the Nasdaq into positive territory. Small caps led and all three TSP stock funds closed at a new high for the year. Bonds rallied as yields ...

Stocks were down yesterday making it three days in a row of losses, and four days in a row where the indices closed near the lows of the day after late sell offs. Trading volume isn't very high so it may not be institutional selling, but clearly the sellers have been dominating the final hour of trading this week. Both yields and the dollar reversed their earlier moves adding to days flip flopping action.

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