Friday was a very interesting day for technical analysis. I'm going to make the case that the market is currently close to fair value - I don't think we're overbought right now. That's not to say I'm not currently bullish - my portfolio is 100% long right now, and I'm taking that position because demand is currently overpowering supply. The trend is up, but the current value is sitting near equilibrium. I routinely look at the volatility index, or VIX. This is the measure of fear in the
One down, one to go It was another good week for the stock market last week but the action was quite choppy as the recent economic data is not setting the world on fire. We are getting a nice oversold bounce after the 15% correction, and the question remains whether this is going to prove to be more than a short-term rebound. For the week, the TSP stock funds saw respectable gains. The C-fund added 2.29%, the S-fund was up 2.41%, and the I-fund led the way again with
OPEX is often a volatile trading session, and usually on high volume. Today's trading was not particularly volatile at all and volume was well below average.
There wasn't much news of note either. I suppose the most interesting thing to happen was gold hitting an all-time high of close to $1264. It fell back after reaching that level, but it was notable nonetheless.
The Seven Sentinels didn't change much given the lackluster action today. Here's the charts:
More choppy trading, but we remain solidly in buy territory for the intermediate term.
The euro continued its advance against the dollar, ending the day with a 0.6% gain.
But it was today's market data that kept the trading mood on the negative side.
Initial jobless claims climbed 12,000 to 472,000, higher than expected. Continuing jobless claims were up 88,000 to 4.57 million, again higher than expected.
The June Philadelphia Fed Index