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  1. Some Upside on Tap?

    It's been a bit of a roller coaster in the indexes the past few weeks and we are about to head into the holidays soon. Seasonality is positive this time of year, and as most of us are quite aware there are numerous political/economic issues weighing on investors and traders alike. So it's difficult to focus on the historical perspective. In such a situation we tend to look for other indications that may give us a clue about market direction.

    A few weeks ago I was asked whether I'd ...
  2. TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

    We went into last week looking at some pretty strong chart action, and into Wednesday it looked like we were going to get some solid breakouts. Then, at the conclusion of the Fed's FOMC meeting, the market indices reversed themselves and we ended with a flat to mixed week.

    Here are the updated weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns through December 14:

    TSP Weekly Wrap Ups
  3. The Capital Gains Effect


    After a positive open on Thursday, stocks drifted lower most of the day as both political parties went public again about how bad the other party's proposals are. The Dow lost 74-points or about -0.6%, which is about how the C and S funds ended the day as well.

  4. Sentiment Survey Results...

    TSP Talk Sentiment Survey results for the week of 12/17/12- 12/21/12

    The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 49% bulls, 42% bears, for a bulls to bears ratio of 1.17 to 1. That is a buy signal which means the system will remain in a 100% S fund allocation for the week of 12/17/12 - 12/21/12.

    Bull market rules have been in effect since the week of 1/09/12:

    See latest survey results

    To discuss or comment on the Sentiment Survey, go to Sentiment
  5. Upside may get tougher, but...


    Stocks saw modest gains in early trading, then the Fed stepped in and shook things up and at the end of the day most indices were flat to slightly lower. The Dow ended the day down 3-points while the S&P was up less than a point.

S&P 500 (C Fund)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)