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Despite a series of strong economic reports, the stock market is still almost completely focused on the situation in Europe; moving up and down with every headline coming out of the EU meetings.
On Thursday and Friday the Dow flip flopped on a couple of nearly 200-point days as the news out of Europe was disappointing on Thursday (-199) and more positive on Friday (+187).
We'll, the EU Summit has now come and gone and the market seemingly cheered the results.
Of course, we were oversold in a big way yesterday, so it wasn't any particular surprise to see a snap-back rally. In last night's blog we saw TRIN at a very high level, which more often than not is a precursor to an imminent rally.
So is the market happy with the EU Summit results, or did the market simply respond to an oversold condition?
Stocks pulled back yesterday on disappointment out of Europe. We talked yesterday about optimism being a little too high for the European meetings, but this pullback may be producing a good opportunity.
A late report of the ECB backing off from doing any aggressive bond purchasing sent stocks down sharply in the last 30 minutes or so of trading, and the Dow ended the day down 199-points.
TSP Talk Sentiment Survey results for the week of 12/12/11- 12/16/11
Sell: The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 47% bulls, 41% bears, for a bulls to bears ratio of 1.15 to 1. That is a sell signal in a bear market which means the system will remain 100% G Fund for the week of 12/12/11 - 12/16/11.
Bear market rules are in affect 8/22/11:
See latest survey results
To discuss or comment on the Sentiment Survey, go to Sentiment Survey Talk
I've been looking lower for several trading days and after some modestly bullish, although volatile sessions, we finally got some weakness that stuck. The questions now are how long and how deep?
Given we're still waiting the results of the EU Summit it's impossible to know the answer ahead of time.
Since I'm running late this evening, I'm going to cut this short post just a few charts: