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  1. Looking For Santa

    Our sentiment survey was decidedly bullish for the coming week, which kept the system in a sell condition. And both groups reflect that sentiment.

    Here's the charts:

    Buy and Hold vs. Trading-2011-fund-allocation-~-top-50-chart-3-jpg
    Buy and Hold vs. Trading-2011-cash-stock-exp-~-top-50-chart-1-jpg

    The Top 50 increased their allocation by 7.74%. So it appears they are buying the dip and hoping seasonality takes this market higher in the end of the year. This group still remains below a total 50% stock allocation. The ...

    Updated 12-19-2011 at 04:34 PM by coolhand

  2. TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up


    Bullish seasonality starts

    Stocks lost ground last week and it has been interesting to see how the days played out. We saw mostly good economic reports that sent stocks higher in the early trading, yet by the close investors were selling. As we'll discuss below, historical seasonality was bearish last week, but this week things start to change.

    For the TSP, the C-fund
    TSP Weekly Wrap Ups
  3. Can I keep my health benefits if I resign from government?

    By's Bureaupat

    Dear Bureaupat,

    I enjoy my federal job but my boss has made my government experience a nightmare. I have some money in savings and a solid idea for my own business but want to ensure that I can maintain my family's health care coverage until I get things stable. When I resign can I keep my government health benefits?

    Dear Entrepreneur,
  4. Ratings Downgrades Continue

    A funny thing happened as Fitch downgraded several major financial banks to include Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. The financial sector rallied. It ended the trading day up about 0.5% overall.

    Transfer 5/20 for 5/21/04-fitch-jpg

    After hours, the downgrades continued with Moody's dropping Belgium two notches to Aa3.

    Earlier in the day, the consumer price index in November was released and showed no change. Economists were looking for a 0.1% increase. Excluding ...
  5. Seasonality chart in step


    For the TSP, the C-fund gained 0.33% yesterday, the S-fund was up 0.84%, the I-fund fell added 0.35%, and the F-fund (bonds) slipped 0.08%.

    Someone pointed out to me yesterday that the market is doing a pretty good job of staying mostly in step with the historical December seasonality chart. Of course it isn't perfect - it never would be. But the lull came right about when we might have expected it, and that is a positive sign for the second half of the
S&P 500 (C fund)
Dow Completion (S fund)
EFA (I fund)
Bonds (F fund)