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  1. Possible huge rally on the horizon

    Here I present two pieces of evidence:

    The US dollar is getting overbought in the longer term. The US dollar index, daily cash settlement, for the last two years is shown on the chart below. A breakdown below the brown line occurred in February of 2011. After the low in May of 2011 there has been a steady rise in what looks like five waves, and now $US backtests the brown line. When this advance fails, the rally should be underway. A prominent negative divergence is on the RSI ...
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  2. Europe again


    7/24/12

    Make it eight negative Mondays in a row for stocks. The indices opened sharply lower yesterday and while the Dow did make a decent comeback from its early 240-point decline, it still ended the day down 101-points.

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  3. Europe still dictating


    7/23/12

    Stocks sold off on Friday as Spanish bond yields spiked above 7% - a level that has meant trouble for other European countries. The Dow lost 121-points on the day.

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  4. Bond and Cash Levels Rise

    Volatility continues to hamper confident positioning when it comes to TSP Management. Overall stock positions remain conservative, while bond and cash levels rise going into the new trading week.

    How much should one save?-fund-allocation-~-top-50-chart-3-jpg
    How much should one save?-2012-top-50-trend-jpg

    The Top 50 dropped their stock exposure by 8.7%; from 28.2% to 19.5%. This group is also sporting a higher bond allocation than stocks.

    How much should one save?-total-tracker-fund-allocation-jpg
    How much should one save?-2012-total-tracker-trend-jpg ...
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  5. TSP Talk Weekly Wrap-Up


    Europe trumps earnings

    Second quarter earnings have been pretty good so far and we hadn't been seeing the typical mid-July "sell the news" reaction this year, but troubles in Europe with Spanish yields rising well above 7% on Friday, a new high in the euro era, and stocks backed off.



    Here are the TSP fund returns for the week of July 16 through
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    TSP Weekly Wrap Ups
S&P 500 (C fund)
[Chart]
Dow Completion (S fund)
[Chart]
EFA (I fund)
[Chart]
Bonds (F fund)
[Chart]