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  1. Sentiment Survey Results...

    TSP Talk Sentiment Survey results for the week of 4/22/13- 4/26/13

    Buy: The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 32% bulls, 59% bears, for a bulls to bears ratio of 0.54 to 1. That is a buy signal in a bull market which means the survey system will remain in a 100% S fund allocation for the week of 4/22/13 - 4/26/13.

    Bull market rules have been in effect since the week of 1/09/12:

    See latest survey results

    To discuss or comment on ...
  2. Pick up in volatility

    04/18/13

    After only brief encounters with volatility this year, it is picking this month as we are seeing triple digit moves in the Dow regularly. The Dow lost 138-points yesterday, which was 0.9%, but the broader indices were hit much harder.
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  3. Rebound

    04/17/13

    The resilient market did what it has done all year - rebound from pullbacks. The Dow, which lost 266-points on Monday, gained back 158 yesterday.
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  4. Trading the Stats: Wednesday, April 17, 2013


    Good evening

    We managed to retrace about 50% of price today, this is the classic setup where the markets want to leave you with questions unanswered. Based off the previous data I filtered last night, and adding to it today's data, the 3rd day's price action (of 59 similar occasions) is in a near dead heat between the upside/downside. You may notice the average positive returns are higher then the negative returns, this is because on 24 Nov, 2008 the markets closed up a whopping
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  5. Trading the Stats: Tuesday, April 16, 2013


    Good morning

    Monday was a "rare bird" event, where we see a significant down day while the markets are breaching record highs. To put this event into context, over the last 75 days we have traded for an average of 94% within the 30, 63, 126, 252, & 500 day high/low range. Generally when we are trading above 90% we won't see a -2% or greater pullback on any single day. In fact, prior to Monday, it has only happened 4 other times over the last 20 years. Below is a Monthly chart
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S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)