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  1. 50-day EMAs being tested

    Stocks dropped sharply on Monday with most of the weakness coming at the open and into the close. We saw some midday buying, but the steady decline into the close shows the nervousness of investors to hold overnight as the news gets less optimistic each day. The Dow lost 136-points on the day.
  2. Charts look OK, but deadlines are approaching

    Stocks rallied on Friday heading into what should have been a weekend full of negotiations over the budget and debt ceiling, and investors seemed more concerned about missing a post-deal rally than worrying about the shut down and deadlines. The Dow gained 76-points on Friday but the Sunday night futures are taking away most of that gain disappear after no deal was reached.
  3. Bearish Sentiment Spikes

    While some sentiment surveys are on the bullish side, ours is not one of them. Our sentiment survey came in at 29% bulls to 66% bears. It isn't often we see that many bears in our poll. We know it's bullish as sentiment goes, but how bullish? I've got some data to give you an idea. Here's this week's charts:

    Doing Day trading online, like the TSP-fund-allocation-~-top-50-chart-3-jpg
    Doing Day trading online, like the TSP-2013-top-50-trend-jpg

    No signal was generated from the Top 50 this week. Stock allocations were the same as last week ...
  4. TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

    It was a bit of a rollercoaster ride last week as there was little progress made in the budget negotiations. We had sold off into the Monday night deadline, but the market surprised a lot of folks by rallying on Tuesday. The back and forth continued and ended with a strong day on Friday. This either tells us that investors did not want to be out of the market if a deal was made over the weekend, or they just don't think it is that big of an issue at this time.

    TSP Weekly Wrap Ups
  5. H or W?

    Stocks fell as frustration seems to be growing surrounding the government shut down and the upcoming debt ceiling deadline. The Dow lost 137-points and we saw 0.9% losses almost across the board. The I-fund held up but it may pay the price today.
S&P 500 (C Fund)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)