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TSP Talk Sentiment Survey results for the week of 7/30/12- 8/03/12
The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 51% bulls, 40% bears, for a bulls to bears ratio of 1.28 to 1. That is a neutral reading which means the system will remain 100% S fund for the week of 7/30/12 - 8/03/12.
Bull market rules have been in effect since the week of 1/09/12:
See latest survey results
To discuss or comment on the Sentiment Survey, go to Sentiment Survey
Stocks rallied early on Wednesday, but floundered late and we saw mixed results in the major indices by the close. The Dow gained 59-points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down.
Despite another late rally, the Dow suffered yet another triple digit loss. The 104-point decline was the third consecutive 100+ point loss for the Dow, and that is the first time that has happened since last September.
Here I present two pieces of evidence:
The US dollar is getting overbought in the longer term. The US dollar index, daily cash settlement, for the last two years is shown on the chart below. A breakdown below the brown line occurred in February of 2011. After the low in May of 2011 there has been a steady rise in what looks like five waves, and now $US backtests the brown line. When this advance fails, the rally should be underway. A prominent negative divergence is on the RSI
Make it eight negative Mondays in a row for stocks. The indices opened sharply lower yesterday and while the Dow did make a decent comeback from its early 240-point decline, it still ended the day down 101-points.