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  1. Trading the Stats: Tuesday, April 16, 2013

    Good morning

    Monday was a "rare bird" event, where we see a significant down day while the markets are breaching record highs. To put this event into context, over the last 75 days we have traded for an average of 94% within the 30, 63, 126, 252, & 500 day high/low range. Generally when we are trading above 90% we won't see a -2% or greater pullback on any single day. In fact, prior to Monday, it has only happened 4 other times over the last 20 years. Below is a Monthly chart
  2. Losses


    It's been a while since we have had a day like yesterday. Stocks tumbled 2% to 4% and gold saw another 9% decline on the day. The Dow closed down 266-points while small caps and the Dow Transports were hit even harder.

    I know many who were not watching the news and market closely yesterday afternoon, might think stocks sold off on the news of bombs exploding in Boston. But there was only an hour to go in the trading day when the attack took place, and stocks ...
  3. Trading the Stats: Monday, April 15, 2013

    Good evening

    I don't solely use stats to make trades but I also don't tug on Superman's cape or spit into the wind. I'm starting up the old blog again so members won't have to dig through the daily drivel in my account talk to find the data they need to make an informed choice.

    Overall, for the S&P 500, Monday is a better buying opportunity than selling opportunity.

    If you are looking to exit the markets this Monday,
    statistically you may want to hold ...

    Updated 04-14-2013 at 10:57 PM by JTH

  4. Bulls continue to battle


    Stocks were down sharply in morning trading on Friday, but once again the bulls refused to be pushed around and the indices closed strongly. The Dow, which was down 75-points at one point, managed to gain back all of those losses. The other indices saw modest losses.
  5. Pessimism Extends Rally

    Last week, I said the Top 50 had reigned in their collective stock exposure from 100% to 88% and that last year any drop in stock allocations of more than 10% often resulted in higher prices for the major indexes by the following Friday. Last week followed that same pattern. I said I expected higher prices by week's end as a result of the drop in stock allocations and that's exactly what we got as the C fund rose 2.34% and the S fund rose 2.35%. And if one managed to jump into the I fund, it posted ...
S&P 500 (C fund)
Dow Completion (S fund)
EFA (I fund)
Bonds (F fund)