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As many of you know, I keep track of our week to week TSP allocations across the Tracker, looking for statistically significant clues that suggest market direction for a given week. I keep statistics on the Top 50 of our tracker and the entire tracker itself. I've primarily looked for signals related to weekly shifts in stock exposure and I've found that whenever there are shifts of more than 10% in the Top 50, either up or down, it tends to be predictive of market action for that week.
High Frequency Traders (HFT’s) are the biggest player in global markets today and are responsible for the highly complex trading algorithms that companies like GS strive to keep secret. HFT’s claim to be “liquidity providers” to pick up a bid when needed while large institutions who trade large blocks of a stock claim they have had a negative impact on the overall financial markets. This post is a quick overview of one particular strategy HFT’s participate in called “Rebate Arbitrge”.
Stocks ended a positive week with a big rally on Friday triggered by the April jobs report. The report was slightly better than the estimates, but there were some very positive revisions made to prior month's reports, which may have taken investors by surprise.
Here are the up to date TSP fund returns through May 3.
April Jobs Report: 165,000 New Jobs; Unemployment Rate Falls to 7.5 Pct
Estimates were looking for +155,000 and 7.6% unemployment rate.
Stocks rallied strongly on Thursday as volatility continues and the Dow posted another triple digit move. Yesterday it was a 131-point gain, which followed Wednesday's 139-point decline.