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For the week ending 08-26-2022

This is my analysis of the weekly charts for the S&P 500, IWM, the VIX and 10-year yields. Premium subscribers also receive a daily commentary with the daily charts and my timing system’s signals for both TSP and ETFs outside of TSP.

Current YTD returns thru 08-26-2022:

TSP:
G fund: 1.62%
F fund: -9.71%
C ...

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The new week started with selling and ended with more selling. The previous Friday's sell-off continued into Monday to start stock indices in negative territory for the week. The bulls did fight back mid-week providing mostly directionless choppy action but a strong move higher on Thursday erased most of the C-funds weekly losses and pushed the S-fund into positive territory for the week. This was a result of wishful speculation that Jerome Powell would be accommodative ...

After being negative in the early afternoon, something lit a fire under the stock market, and the Dow ended the day up 323-points, and it was the under performing index. It looks a little fishy, but that often happens around major Fed appearances. The dollar, yields, and oil were all down yesterday, helping the bullish cause for stocks.

I did not see Thursday's rally coming, but I was expecting some possibly trickery to get us leaning the wrong way. Is that what yesterday's 1.4% ...

Stocks bucked the recent trend yesterday by rallying despite a move higher in the dollar, yields and oil. Perhaps it was positioning in front of the Jackson Hole Symposium as investors may be anticipating some dovish comments from the Fed on Friday or, with trading volume near the lowest levels of the year, it could be that traders have backed off while forced pension type buying kept the indices buoyant. Just a guess. The Dow gained 60-points and the S&P added a dozen, while small caps led ...

A negative open brought in some dip buyers yesterday, but that didn't last long and it was more of a grind for the bulls all day. The Dow lost 154-points and many indices closed in negative territory on the day, but the small caps and the I-fund eked out a gain. Bonds were up early but an ugly negative reversal seems to be hinting that yields are going to continue to move higher. The dollar pulled back and that changed up the pricing action in almost everything - except stock prices.
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