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A nice little snap back rally for stocks yesterday thanks to a pullback in yields, the dollar, and the price of oil - all of which had been headwinds recently as they moved higher. The Dow jumped 436-points while the Nasdaq and small caps gained over 2% each. Bonds were up sharply as the yields dropped, and the 0.71% decline in the dollar is always an I-fund crowd pleaser.

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We came into Tuesday morning with modestly higher futures but the selling quickly started after the opening bell. We saw some attempts by the bulls to buy the dip but the selling persisted into the afternoon, although the morning lows held on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. There seems to be a lot of geopolitical events swirling around and sentiment is getting very bearish again. The question is, is all the bad news priced in yet, because there sure is a lot of it. The Dow fell 173-points and the ...

We got an almost perfect jobs report before the bell on Friday as far as not being too hot, and actually raising the unemployment rate, which is what the Fed wanted to see happen, but the initial bullish reaction faded at noon ET, and the Dow fell about 700-points off its highs to close down 338-points. That included a nearly 140-point rally off the lows in the final minutes of trading. So it was a rough day for the stock market and the bulls, who thought they had a big rally to end the week. ...

For the week ending 09-06-2022

This is my analysis of the weekly charts for the S&P 500, IWM, the VIX and 10-year yields. Premium subscribers also receive a daily commentary with the daily charts and my timing system’s signals for both TSP and ETFs outside of TSP.

Current YTD returns thru 08-26-2022:

TSP:
G fund: 1.68%
F fund: -10.64%
C fund: -16.78%
S fund: -23.56%
I fund: ...

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The bears continue to control the market. The selling pressure this week was a continuation of Jerome Powell's hawkish speech last Friday. Stocks were down the first three days of the week and opened down Thursday, but life in the bulls ahead of the August Jobs report brought the S&P 500 into positive territory for the day ending a four-day losing streak for the C-fund. That momentum carried into Friday morning where the August Jobs report was declared a Goldilocks report and ...