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For the week ending 09-06-2022

This is my analysis of the weekly charts for the S&P 500, IWM, the VIX and 10-year yields. Premium subscribers also receive a daily commentary with the daily charts and my timing system’s signals for both TSP and ETFs outside of TSP.

Current YTD returns thru 08-26-2022:

TSP:
G fund: 1.68%
F fund: -10.64%
C fund: -16.78%
S fund: -23.56%
I fund: ...

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The bears continue to control the market. The selling pressure this week was a continuation of Jerome Powell's hawkish speech last Friday. Stocks were down the first three days of the week and opened down Thursday, but life in the bulls ahead of the August Jobs report brought the S&P 500 into positive territory for the day ending a four-day losing streak for the C-fund. That momentum carried into Friday morning where the August Jobs report was declared a Goldilocks report and ...

A big move higher in bond yields wasn't enough to keep the Dow and S&P 500 from shaking off some big early losses and turn them into gains by the close. Small caps and the I-fund lagged posting a big loss, but they too came well off their lows after the indices had become quite oversold. Is this a bottom? It's way too early to say, but a dead cat bounce, at the last, after the August second half shellacking is not out of the question - even in a bear market.

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Stocks rallied early on Wednesday but it was another choppy day that ended with losses for the major indices. The Dow lost 280-points and what looked like some last minute program driven selling took the indices down near their lows of the day by the close. Yields were up slightly, the dollar was knocking on that new high door again - but no new high yet, and oil came down sharply again on fears of an economic slowdown.

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The bad news was that stocks were down sharply again on Tuesday, so no Turnaround Tuesday this week. The good news is, and this may be grasping at straws, the indices stabilized and basically held their morning lows of the day and in the case of the S&P 500, closed about 16 points off the 10:45 AM lows. The Dow ended the day down another 308-points and at this point we have seen a 50% retracement of the gains off the June lows.

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