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  1. Trading the Stats: Week 15

    I'm on the road this week, working with a netbook is difficult for me, so I'll make this short and sweet.

    Both SPX/W4500 had a below average week, AGG had a great week (2nd best in 12 years)
    Trouble  Ahead?-2016-15-d-review-png

    ESD is scheduled to be in the F-Fund on Tuesday, I plan to delay this signal, perhaps opting to go directly into the S-Fund. I have not made a final decision yet (mostly because I was not able to watch the markets last week)
    Trouble  Ahead?-2016-15-d-esd-png
    ...

    Updated 04-10-2016 at 02:42 PM by JTH

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  2. Trading the Stats: Week 14


    Based on the 1st day of April, I'd estimate the S&P 500 is on target for a 4.00% month. Here's a review of what's happened this April, last week, and last month.
    Transfer 7/28 for 7/29/04-2016-14-d-review-png


    Looking at the S&P 500's long-term 6-month chart on the daily scale:

    • Friday's long tail down produced an outside day, making the 2044 low an important level for me to watch.
    • After testing trendline AC last Tuesday, we now have our 1st close over the highest descending
    ...

    Updated 04-03-2016 at 04:38 AM by JTH

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  3. Trading the Stats: 2nd Quarter

    While the rough start to January 2016 jolted many of us, February managed to close flat, followed by what was an impressive March close. Somehow, the S&P 500 managed to eek out a positive gain for the 1st Quarter, it's not an impressive win, but it is an important psychological victory for those who are still mentally battered. I've noticed the bearish slant over the past 2 months, and while I don't agree with it, I do understand that when folks get their teeth kicked in, it takes a while before ...

    Updated 04-01-2016 at 12:30 PM by JTH

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  4. Trading the Stats: Week 13

    It's the last week of the first quarter, the final stretch and SPX is down -.39% YTD. This leaves us with a 4-day opportunity to finish above the zero line, can do it?

    With the first 18 trading days of March behind us, we're on track for an SPX/W4500 5-7% finish for the month. Week 12's loss snapped the previous 5-week winning streak for SPX/W4500, but it wasn't a substantial lose when you consider that on the weekly timeframe, we made both higher highs and a higher lows than the
    ...

    Updated 03-25-2016 at 01:24 PM by JTH

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  5. Trading the Stats: Week 12

    __At this point in the month, statistically speaking, this is about as good as it gets. For the first 14 trading days of March, both SPX & W4500 are above 6% which historically leads to a 6-9% finish for the month. In addition, week 11 was a great week for the markets, with SPX/W4500/AGG all closing well above their average baseline returns.

    Here's a review of what's happened this March, last week, and last month. __
    __SPX had a top 10% March 14-day performance and a top 39%
    ...

    Updated 03-19-2016 at 12:10 PM by JTH

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