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  1. Trading the Stats: Wednesday, April 17, 2013


    Good evening

    We managed to retrace about 50% of price today, this is the classic setup where the markets want to leave you with questions unanswered. Based off the previous data I filtered last night, and adding to it today's data, the 3rd day's price action (of 59 similar occasions) is in a near dead heat between the upside/downside. You may notice the average positive returns are higher then the negative returns, this is because on 24 Nov, 2008 the markets closed up a whopping
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  2. Trading the Stats: Tuesday, April 16, 2013


    Good morning

    Monday was a "rare bird" event, where we see a significant down day while the markets are breaching record highs. To put this event into context, over the last 75 days we have traded for an average of 94% within the 30, 63, 126, 252, & 500 day high/low range. Generally when we are trading above 90% we won't see a -2% or greater pullback on any single day. In fact, prior to Monday, it has only happened 4 other times over the last 20 years. Below is a Monthly chart
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  3. What to do if you've taken the hit!

    As with everything I do I have a contingency plan. It's like going to war, when war is declared, you pull out a canned plan and make the adjustments as needed. My plan was canned back in December 2009 and I blogged about it.

    Plan A: Avoid the loss in the first place (duh). I could have done this, but just couldn't seem to find a good opportunity.

    Plan B: Look for a 50% retracement, bump up contributions to lower the cost bases per share. For those who had the stones ...
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  4. The Nuts & Bolts

    On a day like this I tend to get excited looking for new buying opportunities, but today isn't one of those days. After a review of systems and charts, I cannot in good faith recommend a buy under these circumstances. What I can do is present a few things and let you draw your own conclusion.

    The systems I monitor did not trigger a buy and don't appear to be in any hurry to do so. When prices fall this drastically 1 of 2 things need to happen. Either reality needs to catch up to prices
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  5. The Bond Spectrum: Are we range-bound?

    Over the course of the last month Bonds have been a relatively safe place to park your money which is something that can't be said for the stock market. The question is, what will will become of bonds as we enter the final week of QE2? Unable to support it's own weight, will U.S. Treasuries stumble in the weeks ahead and if they do what does this mean for stocks? Regardless if you're in bonds or stocks, this week is the week to watch with all eyes on QE2's demise. As the world looks to us ...
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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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