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  1. Per Diem: Cannonball Run

    (everybody's in the race)

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    14th trading day of March

    • SPX, 45% winning ratio with -.01% average returns
    • R2K, 50% winning ratio with -.17% average returns
    • AGG, 36% winning ratio with .03% average returns

    Transfer 7/16 for 7/19/04-2015-03-19-01-png

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    Wednesday


    • SPX, 73% winning ratio with .62% average returns
    • R2K, 82% winning ratio with .81% average returns
    • AGG, 45% winning ratio with .08% average returns

    Transfer 7/16 for 7/19/04-2015-03-19-02-png ...
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  2. Trading the Stats: Week 8

    Good evening

    The S&P 500's third week of February (week 7 of 52) closed up .63% this is above the -.27% average week 7 returns, is the 9th best week over the past 21 years, and the 22nd best over the past 66 years.

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    Contrasting week 8 against an up/down week 7 from 1950-2014


    • We show the last 65 week 8s have an average 51% winning ratio and -.05% average returns
    • For the 32 years when week 7 closed up, week 8 shows a 47% winning
    ...

    Updated 02-23-2015 at 02:02 AM by JTH

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  3. Charting: Some Alternative Views

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    Evening folks

    There is already a great wealth of charts posted within the forum & blogs, all of which have done an outstanding job of covering the most important prices levels. So for tonight, I'd like to touch on some alternative viewpoints which may not fall within mainstream thinking.

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    AGG

    • We show potential for a mirrored Ascending Triangle, if the pattern repeats, then we may re-test the 2015 high in early March

    ...

    Updated 02-11-2015 at 11:35 PM by JTH

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  4. Misc: Breaking Even

    I wrote "February's Historical Performance" blog last week and have not posted it because some of this analysis is dependent on January's close.

    In last weekend's blog...

    "I don't want to underscore the importance of this last week. "So goes January, so goes the year" and we have strong statistical evidence to back up that statement. My personal belief is that we will close both the week and the month up, it is a must! Over the past 64 Januaries 61% or 39 of 64 closed
    ...

    Updated 01-30-2015 at 01:10 AM by JTH

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  5. Trading the Stats: Week 3

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    The pink circle represents our progress for 2015, this will give us an idea of where we fall within the statistical average. Week 2 closed down -1.24%

    There are 52 weeks this year, for week 3

    • We show a 35% winning ratio, which is in the bottom 20%, ranking in a 2-way tie for 49th
    • We show -.70% average gains, which is in the bottom 20%, ranking 50th
    • We show 1.10% average positive gains, which is in the bottom 20%, ranking 48th
    • We show -1.68% average
    ...

    Updated 01-17-2015 at 06:27 PM by JTH

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