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  1. Trading the Stats: Week 17

    The markets continue to reluctantly trudge ahead, climbing the wall of worry, while leaving the naysayers behind.

    There isn't much else to add, it's sort of a sleeper, where prices are creeping up inch by inch. While the S&P 500 has thus far had a very average (middle of the road) statistical month, W4500 has fared better on the weekly timeframe. And for those who are still drinking the bear cool-aid, both SPX & W4500 have closed up 10 of 16 weeks. Adding to the confusion, AGG has
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  2. Trading the Stats: Week 16

    Going to cut is short again, I'm just getting caught up from being out of town.

    While the previous week 15 was a solid above average week, this has been a weaker than expected April, so I'm tamping down the SPX's end of month projection to 2% from the previous 4% projection.
    Trouble  Ahead?-2016-16-d-review-png


    For the SPX 6-Month Daily chart, we've hit a Double top. For the bulls, we've made a higher high, but for the bears, we failed to get a solid higher close, so it's a draw.
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  3. Trading the Stats: Week 15

    I'm on the road this week, working with a netbook is difficult for me, so I'll make this short and sweet.

    Both SPX/W4500 had a below average week, AGG had a great week (2nd best in 12 years)
    Trouble  Ahead?-2016-15-d-review-png

    ESD is scheduled to be in the F-Fund on Tuesday, I plan to delay this signal, perhaps opting to go directly into the S-Fund. I have not made a final decision yet (mostly because I was not able to watch the markets last week)
    Trouble  Ahead?-2016-15-d-esd-png
    ...

    Updated 04-10-2016 at 02:42 PM by JTH

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  4. Trading the Stats: Week 14


    Based on the 1st day of April, I'd estimate the S&P 500 is on target for a 4.00% month. Here's a review of what's happened this April, last week, and last month.
    Transfer 7/28 for 7/29/04-2016-14-d-review-png


    Looking at the S&P 500's long-term 6-month chart on the daily scale:

    • Friday's long tail down produced an outside day, making the 2044 low an important level for me to watch.
    • After testing trendline AC last Tuesday, we now have our 1st close over the highest descending
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    Updated 04-03-2016 at 04:38 AM by JTH

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  5. Trading the Stats: 2nd Quarter

    While the rough start to January 2016 jolted many of us, February managed to close flat, followed by what was an impressive March close. Somehow, the S&P 500 managed to eek out a positive gain for the 1st Quarter, it's not an impressive win, but it is an important psychological victory for those who are still mentally battered. I've noticed the bearish slant over the past 2 months, and while I don't agree with it, I do understand that when folks get their teeth kicked in, it takes a while before ...

    Updated 04-01-2016 at 12:30 PM by JTH

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