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JTH

  1. Trading the Stats: Wednesday, April 24th, 2013

    by
    JTH
    , 04-24-2013 at 12:14 AM

    Good Morning

    A higher close was had on Tuesday, therefore the Positive Friday & Monday Indicator executed successfully.. From Monday’s blog I wrote

    “Looking ahead, I expect this market to resume prices to the upside within the next few days, but I do not expect the markets to make new 52 week higher highs because of the technical damage. From my perspective the downtrend remains intact under 1575 and I wouldn’t be surprised if we started to develop a 1550-1575 trading
    ...

    Updated 04-24-2013 at 07:20 AM by JTH (CORRECTION: I'm under in TSP MTD, above in terms of the Wilshire 4500.)

    Categories
    Stats
  2. Trading the Stats: Tuesday, April 23rd, 2013

    by
    JTH
    , 04-23-2013 at 07:30 AM


    Good morning



    Over the last 25 sessions, Tuesday has a 72% winning ratio, with a very strong positive bias over all 100 sessions. Simply stated, for right now, this is the best day of the week to make money.

    Name:  2013-04-23 - Tuesday.png
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    ____________________
    You may recall last week I talked about the Negative Friday & Monday Indicator being triggered. True to the law of averages, it played out and lower closes were had
    ...

    Updated 04-23-2013 at 04:16 PM by JTH

    Categories
    Stats
  3. Trading the Stats: Monday, April 22, 2013

    by
    JTH
    , 04-22-2013 at 10:03 AM


    Good morning

    It was a painful week for investors, and this month has felt downright bloody, but if we step back and look at the bigger picture, the reality is the S&P 500 is down only -.49% MTD. It’s not the prices drop that’s been scary, but the relatively short amount of time it’s taken for those prices to drop. If you feel like you’re getting shaken from your conviction to stay invested, perhaps this chart of April’s returns over the last 60 years will help convince
    ...

    Updated 04-22-2013 at 11:58 AM by JTH

    Tags: s&p 500, stats
    Categories
    Stocks , Stats
  4. Trading the Stats: Friday, April 19, 2013

    by
    JTH
    , 04-18-2013 at 10:52 PM


    Good morning

    It's been a tough week, I've been at home on Conv. leave, watching the markets in real-time and it hasn't been any fun when it's tanking and so are your positions. If you read Tuesday's blog then you know we had triggered the Down Friday & Monday Indicator, which hints at a 75% probability the markets will go lower than Monday's close, with the highest probability of the lowest close on Friday. I wanted to present this data on Monday, but the stats I had were
    ...
    Categories
    Uncategorized
  5. Trading the Stats: Wednesday, April 17, 2013

    by
    JTH
    , 04-16-2013 at 07:03 PM

    Good evening

    We managed to retrace about 50% of price today, this is the classic setup where the markets want to leave you with questions unanswered. Based off the previous data I filtered last night, and adding to it today's data, the 3rd day's price action (of 59 similar occasions) is in a near dead heat between the upside/downside. You may notice the average positive returns are higher then the negative returns, this is because on 24 Nov, 2008 the markets closed up a whopping
    ...
    Categories
    Uncategorized
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