JTH

Good morning



Over the last 25 sessions, Tuesday has a 72% winning ratio, with a very strong positive bias over all 100 sessions. Simply stated, for right now, this is the best day of the week to make money.




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You may recall last week I talked about the Negative Friday & Monday Indicator being triggered. True to the law of averages, it played out and lower closes were had ...

Good morning

It was a painful week for investors, and this month has felt downright bloody, but if we step back and look at the bigger picture, the reality is the S&P 500 is down only -.49% MTD. It’s not the prices drop that’s been scary, but the relatively short amount of time it’s taken for those prices to drop. If you feel like you’re getting shaken from your conviction to stay invested, perhaps this chart of April’s returns over the last 60 years will help convince ...

Good morning

It's been a tough week, I've been at home on Conv. leave, watching the markets in real-time and it hasn't been any fun when it's tanking and so are your positions. If you read Tuesday's blog then you know we had triggered the Down Friday & Monday Indicator, which hints at a 75% probability the markets will go lower than Monday's close, with the highest probability of the lowest close on Friday. I wanted to present this data on Monday, but the stats I had were ...

Good evening

We managed to retrace about 50% of price today, this is the classic setup where the markets want to leave you with questions unanswered. Based off the previous data I filtered last night, and adding to it today's data, the 3rd day's price action (of 59 similar occasions) is in a near dead heat between the upside/downside. You may notice the average positive returns are higher then the negative returns, this is because on 24 Nov, 2008 the markets closed up a whopping ...

Good morning

Monday was a "rare bird" event, where we see a significant down day while the markets are breaching record highs. To put this event into context, over the last 75 days we have traded for an average of 94% within the 30, 63, 126, 252, & 500 day high/low range. Generally when we are trading above 90% we won't see a -2% or greater pullback on any single day. In fact, prior to Monday, it has only happened 4 other times over the last 20 years. Below is a Monthly chart ...