Trading the Stats: Week 21
by, 05-22-2016 at 02:10 PM (1423 Views)
Welcome to the month of May, where the wolves run wild and the sheep are scared.
Cutting it short this week, mostly just to get June's ESD published. I've missed posting the previous two weekly blogs and since I will be traveling back to the states next week, I'll most likely miss the next two. Either ways, the seasonality is playing out rather well, and if things go as expected, perhaps there will be a good opportunity to take another short-term entry soon, and another long-term entry during the traditional June/July bottom.
Closing out week 20, this was the 1st time in 4 weeks where SPX/W4500 closed up and AGG closed down. Based on where we are within this stage of week 20, I statistically expect SPX to close positive with a .5% gain, with W4500 closing flat to down -.5%.
On the 6-Month Daily chart, SPX has pulled back -4.00% off the previous 20 Apr high, and looks to be testing the neckline of a Head & Shoulders style pattern. Regardless, my expectations for next week are for a positive close, but first we need a higher weekly high, which means we need to breach above 2072.
JTH-ALPAFS is BEARISH! With 4 of 4 indexes flipping over to a sell, the system is currently resting in the G-Fund. The current price objective is 1954 which is also a 50% retracement of wave D-E.
JTH-ESD is in the F-Fund and will enter either the C or S fund this week. If it enters the S-Fund this month, then it will miss the C-Fund entry for June, so a decision will have to be made before the entry on Wednesday. For now, the month of June is posted, and it shows the C-Fund is the best performing fund to start in.
For myself, I expect to re-enter stocks this week. I realize there has been a lot of market noise, but from my perspective, things have held up better than expected, so I'm not overly concerned about taking an entry this week.