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JTH

Trading the Stats: Week 16

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Going to cut is short again, I'm just getting caught up from being out of town.

While the previous week 15 was a solid above average week, this has been a weaker than expected April, so I'm tamping down the SPX's end of month projection to 2% from the previous 4% projection.
Trouble  Ahead?-2016-16-d-review-png


For the SPX 6-Month Daily chart, we've hit a Double top. For the bulls, we've made a higher high, but for the bears, we failed to get a solid higher close, so it's a draw. At this point, we're under where I expected we should be, but as long as we hold the 2020 support level, my 2121-2222 projections remain unchanged.
Trouble  Ahead?-2016-16-d-spx-png


It was a tough week for ESD, the 2-day side step into the F-Fund, has yielded a -.85% MTD performance which puts it in the bottom of the monthly tracker. Still the system is riding the remainder of the month in the S-Fund and I think it will fair decently as we close out the month.
Trouble  Ahead?-2016-16-d-esd-png


For ALPAFS, SPX/W4500/TRAN/NDX all have bullish price projections. Based on the recent performance of W4500 and the statistical remainder of the month for this Index, I pushed the system out of the C-fund and into the S-Fund to chase performance.
Trouble  Ahead?-2016-16-d-alpafs-png


Lastly, I'm 1.11% MTD, doing better than the other 2 systems this month. I've been planning to move into the S-Fund, but I've also been holding onto the 2 IFTs, in an attempt to pull out at a top, something which has been difficult to do. I think we've been underperforming this month, so I'm expecting we should get some gains this week, we'll see how this works out.
Trouble  Ahead?-2016-16-d-jth-png

Take care...Jason

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