JTH

Greetings

Monthly Update (covering the past 20 years)

Currently, the index is sitting at an outstanding 5.89%

Over the past 20 years, this is substantially higher than the average gains of 1.65% and above the average positive gains of 4.62%

If the index closed out the month today, it would rank as the 5th best October in 20 years, and 8th best over the past 65 Octobers.




Weekly update (covering the past 11 years)

Week 41 closed at .90%

This is directly on target with week 41's average .91% gains over the past 11 years

Comparing week 40-52's 13-week range, here are the week 42 stats

9th best winning ratio at 55% (4-way tie)
9th best average positive gains at 1.47%
10th best average gains at -.40%
9th best average negative gains at -2.63%

Overall, week 42 ranks as the 10th best week in the 4th quarter's 40-52 week range (meaning it's the 4th worst of the 13 week range)




Day of the Week (Sell on Wednesday, buy on Tuesday)

Wednesday has been the best day to buy, with a 64% winning ratio and .62% average gains
Tuesday has been the best day to sell, with a 27% winning ratio and -.37% average gains




Pre IFT vs. Post IFT

The Pre-IFT deadline has a 68% winning ratio with .30% average gains
The Post-IFT deadline has a 68% winning ratio with .24% average gains

When the Pre-IFT closed positive, the post IFT closed positive 71% of the time
When the Pre-IFT closed negative, the post IFT closed negative 38% of the time




Useless Data

In order for me to analyze my performance against the markets, I need to establish a bassline on how well the markets perform

Going back to 1950, over the past 3,340 weeks, the S&P 500 has a 56% winning ratio with .16% average gains. With .16% weekly gains multiplied by 52 weeks, we have an 8.32% yearly gain (uncompounded)

"Roughly speaking" this is the standard by which most of us should measure ourselves against

Digging deeper, over the past 65 week 41s, 34 have closed positive. Of those 34 positive week 41s, week 42 has a 50% winning ratio with -.38% average gains

Bottom line, based on the stats I've presented for both week 41 & 42, I expect this week to close down -1% to -2%

I should preface that with "I've yet to find a consistent way to capitalize on statistics"




Take care…Jason