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JTH

Mid-April Update

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It's been a short-while since I've posted a blog, sometimes a break is needed to recharge the batteries. I've spent some time revamping the charts, adding some visual eye candy to give our readers some additional perspectives to work with. This is fairly typical because I get bored with the same stuff and feel the need to "rearrange the furniture"

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Here's the Mid-April update

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Covering the last 11 Monday through Fridays, and gauging the IFT deadline across the S&P 500, Russell 2000 and AGG



  • SPX shows us a post IFT drop on Mon/Thur, a slight rise on Fri and trades flat on Tue/Wed
  • R2K shows us a strong post IFT drop on Mon/Thur, a drop on Tue/Fri and trades flat on Wed
  • AGG shows us a post IFT rise on Thur/Fri

mlk_man's account talk-2015-04-19-000-png


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Covering the last 11 Monday through Fridays, across the S&P 500, Russell 2000 and AGG


  • SPX has a 55-Day 47% winning ratio w/.06% average gains, Mon/Thur are the best and Tue/Wed/Fri are the worst (ranked #2)
  • R2K has a 55-Day 58% winning ratio w/.11% average gains, Mon/Thur are the best and Tue/Wed/Fri are the worst (ranked #1)
  • AGG has a 55-Day 55% winning ratio w/-.03% average gains, Mon/Wed are the best and Tue/Thu/Fri are the worst (ranked #3)

mlk_man's account talk-2015-04-19-001-png


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Thus far, the first 2 weeks of April have proven to be mixed but good and for the month we are up .64% so buyers still control the larger landscape. The good statistical news for us is that the next 2 weeks (16 & 17) are the strongest gainers of the 2nd quarter, with very high winning ratios and strong average gains
mlk_man's account talk-2015-04-19-002-png


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TSP Fund Price Performance over the past 20 days (only discussing the F/C/S/I funds)



  • I-Fund ranks 1st with a 60% winning ratio and .14% average returns
  • F -Fund ranks 2nd with a 75% winning ratio and .04% average returns
  • S-Fund ranks 3rd with a 40% winning ratio and .00% average returns
  • C-Fund ranks 4th with a 50% winning ratio and -.01% average returns


I-Fund leads 8.50% YTD!
mlk_man's account talk-2015-04-19-003-png


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AGG has had a tricky yet profitable year, for the time being I believe we are in a state of consolidation & compression before the next move higher
mlk_man's account talk-2015-04-19-004-png


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SPX
As with many of the Indexes, we continue to see a series of lower highs, and in the case of the S&P 500, we also have some higher lows. At this time, I still think the 2040 area is the most critical level of support, acting as our preverbal line on the sand, while prices bounce back & forth inside the red triangle
mlk_man's account talk-2015-04-19-005-png


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EMW
Still the strongest of the indexes I track, recently breaking out with a fresh set of 52-week highs, I'm watching the October 2014 trendline closely
mlk_man's account talk-2015-04-19-006-png


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I previously stated on 3/17/2015 "
Optimistically speaking, it is my belief both seasonality and the charts are getting aligned and this gives us potential momentum for the S&P 500 to make a mid-April run for 2175-2225, that's a 4-6 percent move. Conversely, a close back below 2040 will make me re-evaluate the price action."

The 2175-2225 price target has not been met within the time frame I projected and this about sums up how this year has statistically performed. So far, this is turning out to be a flat-to-underwhelming year, perhaps this market really is stuttering on its last legs, or perhaps it's nothing more than long-term consolidation before the next leg higher. The good news is that there are plenty of strong trendlines to watch, so we should get fair warning before things head south.

Trade it like you stole it…Jason




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Updated 04-19-2015 at 02:01 PM by JTH

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes