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JTH

PnF: Undecided

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Lot's of price action this week, with the S&P 500 & Transports flipping over to a sell

Rod's Account Talk-2015-03-25-01-png


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AGG


  • 2 March triggered a Double Bottom Breakdown
  • 6 March triggered a Descending Triple Bottom Breakdown (Back-to-back Double Bottom Breakdowns)
  • REVERSAL - 12 March triggered a Bearish Signal Reversed (A Double Top Breakout which breaks the downtrend)
  • 18 March signaled Long Tail up (Price Objective unchanged)
  • 24 March triggered an Ascending Triple Top Breakout (Price Objective unchanged)
  • We have a 112.85 bullish price objective, with a reversal triggered at 109.92 (1.27% vs. -.46%)
  • Long-term Bullish - Price is greater than 110.31 or 50% of the entire chart
  • Short-term Bullish - Price is greater than 50% of the S6/R2 price columns
  • Noteworthy - We have 2 higher lows and 3 higher highs (trending)

Rod's Account Talk-2015-03-25-02-png

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SPX


  • 6 March triggered a High Pole Warning (price raised above a previous high by at least 3 boxes but then reverses to give back at least 50 percent of the rise)
  • 16 March Triggered a Double Top Breakout (Price Objective unchanged)
  • REVERSAL -25 March triggered a Double Bottom Breakdown
  • We have a 2011.86 bearish price objective, with a reversal triggered at 2116 (-2.40% vs. 2.67%)
  • Long-term Bullish - Price is greater than 1963.3 or 50% of the entire chart
  • Short-term Bearish & descending - Price is less than 50% of the S4/R1 price columns
  • Noteworthy - We have a triple low at S4's 2043.3

Rod's Account Talk-2015-03-25-03-png

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W4500


  • 6 March, triggered a High Pole Warning (price raised above a previous high by at least 3 boxes but then reverses to give back at least 50 percent of the rise)
  • 12 March Triggered a Bullish Triangle Breakout (Price Objective unchanged)
  • WARNING - 25 March signaled a High Pole Warning (Price Objective unchanged)
  • We have a 1172.7 bullish price objective, with a reversal triggered at 1078.27 (7.21% vs. -1.42%)
  • Long-term Bullish - Price is greater than 1025.75 or 50% of the entire chart
  • Short-term Bearish & descending - Price is less than 50% of the S8/R1 price columns
  • Noteworthy - Today's move down in the small caps was very large

Rod's Account Talk-2015-03-25-04-png

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Transports


  • 4 March triggered a Double Bottom Breakdown
  • 12 March Triggered a Low Pole Reversal (Price Objective unchanged)
  • 18 March Triggered a Double Top Breakout
  • REVERSAL -23 March triggered a Double Bottom Breakdown
  • We have a 8291.55 bearish price objective, with a reversal triggered at 9186.5 (-4.99% vs. 5.26%)
  • Long-term Bullish - Price is greater than 8481 or 50% of the entire chart
  • Short-term Bearish & descending - Price is less than 50% of the S3/R4 price columns
  • Noteworthy - Once again, the Transports were the first index to lead us down, with no support till S3's Triple bottom, which is 7 boxes or 1.75% below

Rod's Account Talk-2015-03-25-05-png

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NASDAQ 100


  • 6 March triggered a Double Bottom Breakdown
  • 17 March Low Pole reversal (Price Objective unchanged)
  • REVERSAL -20 March - Double Top Breakout
  • We have a 4858.21 bullish price objective, with a reversal triggered at 4278.8 (12.22% vs. -1.17%)
  • Long-term Bullish - Price is greater than 4074.4 or 50% of the entire chart
  • Short-term Bearish - Price is less than 50% of the S4/R1 price columns
  • Noteworthy - Double Top at R1

Rod's Account Talk-2015-03-25-06-png

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Some folks stepped out earlier in the week and can't get back in, while others (such as myself) stayed in and will ride out the Month due to the IFT limitations. Nobody wants to absorb a -2% loss in a single day, but these things happen. We've already given back the gains from Janet Yellen's 18 March Patience Meeting, that's not good and if the small caps breach the lows from 11 March, that may trigger a fresh round of selling. We also have End of Quarter rotation taking place (I can't see it but we know it exist.)

If you're starting to get worried, let me break it down on the 2-month scale. Listed below, I have 3 undecided and 1 bullish/bearish, that's breakeven and since the previous long-term trend leading into these patterns was up, I'll defer to the larger trend until we break through the previous lows.



  • AGG - Higher high, lower low (undecided)
  • SPX - Lower high, higher low (undecided)
  • W4500 - Higher high/low (bullish)
  • Transports - Lower high/low (bearish)
  • NASDAQ 100 - Lower high, higher low (undecided)


Trade safe…Jason










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