JTH

Ranking the indexes, from best to worst

#1 NASDAQ 100
#2 Wilshire 4500
#3 S&P 500
#4 Transports
#5 AGG

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3rd trading of March

• SPX, 70% winning ratio with .46% average returns
  
• R2K, 65% winning ratio with .37% average returns
  
• AGG, 27% winning ratio with -.17% average returns
  

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Wednesdays are dreadful…but slightly mixed

• SPX, 27% winning ratio with .02% average returns (last 5 closed down)
  
• R2K, 45% winning ratio with .14% average returns (last 2 closed up)
  
• AGG, 55% winning ratio with .05% average returns (last 2 closed up)
  

Tuesday gave us some micro-pullbacks, nothing too damaging, but there were some mixed results when comparing the indexes side-by-side, meaning "not all indexes are created equal." A good way to examine those results, is to compare the charts using a 30-min 13-ATR Renko, a duel layered 52-SMA Bollinger Band and Quadrant lines. This both gives us a sense of where prices reside over the past largest wave of price action and lets us equalize the indexes side-by-side. Although these charts cover roughly 20 days' worth of data, it's basically setup to be read with a 4-day perspective and if you aren't familiar with Renko charts, I've touched on it in a previous blog called PnF: Cousin Renko




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AGG, 30-min

• Watching for a test of the 110.15 low at the B bottom
  
• Watching to see if a Head and Shoulders pattern will emerge, but it's too early to call
  

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SPX, 30-min
On this scale, we have our first lower low across the entire AB wave (a chink in the armor)
The 2103 QUAD support I mentioned last night was finally broken, but we did close above this level


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W4500, 30-min

• Notice that after we put in the 1103.60 brick, we immediately pulled back, this may prove to be a "bull trap"
  
• At the moment, we have a Triple Bottom at 1095.85 if this level doesn't hold, then we'll have produced lower low
  

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Transports, 30-min
On this scale, we have our first lower high across the BC wave
Price is below the 52-SMA Bollinger Band (the equivalent of a 4-day Daily SMA)


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NASDAQ 100, 30-min

• We have a Double Bottom at 4437.00 (watch the leader)

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Lastly, we have a chart showing us the number of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50/150/200 day moving averages. The last time this chart was posted, we were within the yellow boxes. When we broke out into the green circles, this was confirmation our rally had legs. Since this time, this chart has stepped-up into a higher trading range and has slightly faltered. Compounding this, the Bollinger bands are contracting. When Bollinger bands contract, it hints towards price compression, when prices compress, it hints towards a breakout/breakdown with "momentum" These things don't tend to happen overnight, it's sort of like a pressure cooker, the more prices compress, the more momentum is built up, the bigger the explosion.



Trade what you see, not what you read…Jason