JTH

Good evening

The S&P 500's third week of February (week 7 of 52) closed up .63% this is above the -.27% average week 7 returns, is the 9th best week over the past 21 years, and the 22nd best over the past 66 years.

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Contrasting week 8 against an up/down week 7 from 1950-2014

• We show the last 65 week 8s have an average 51% winning ratio and -.05% average returns
  
• For the 32 years when week 7 closed up, week 8 shows a 47% winning ratio with -.10% average returns
• For the 33 years when week 7 closed down, week 8 shows a 58% winning ratio with .00% average returns
  
• Both the winning ratios average returns and are slightly below average, but the data here does not show conviction towards either side

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For week 8, we'll contrast against the 52 weeks of the year, from 1995-2014

• We show a 50% winning ratio, which is below average, ranking in a 8-way tie at 35th
  
• We show -.25% average returns, which is below average, ranking 43rd
• We show 1.11% average positive returns, which is below average, ranking 47th
• We show -1.61% average negative returns, which is above average, ranking 17th
• While closing up the last 3 years, the previous 5 closed down, historically, week 8 has a negative bias

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For week 8, we have trading days 15-19

• The average 5-day winning ratio is 53%
  
• The cumulative 5-day average return is -.21%

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For the last 11 Monday through Fridays

• Last 3 Tuesdays closed up for SPX/R2K, down for AGG
  
• Last Thursday closed down but flat, prior 4 closed up for SPX/R2K
• Last 2 Fridays closed up, for SPX/R2K
• Overall, for the S&P 500, 4 of 5 days having 45% winning ratios and 3 of 5 having week average gains

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TSP Fund Price Performance over the past 20 days (only discussing the F/C/S/I funds)

• I-Fund ranks 1st with a 65% winning ratio and .28% average returns
  
• S -Fund ranks 2nd with a 65% winning ratio and .22% average returns
• C-Fund ranks 3rd with a 55% winning ratio and .13% average returns
  
• F-Fund ranks 4th with a 40% winning ratio and -.03% average returns
• I-Fund takes the lead on the 5 & 20 day timeframes, while the F-Fund places last on the 5, 10, & 20 day timeframe

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Within a 1st quarters seasonal dip, week 8 is statically where the bottom gets found, but as we know, there hasn't been a dip since January. Based off the declining path of the previous 3 week's price action of 3.03%, 2.02 & .63%, I would expect this week to close flat.

Stay nimble…Jason