JTH

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For the S&P 500, the second week of February (week 6 of 52) closed up 2.02% this is above the .19% average week 6 returns, is the 4th best week over the past 21 years, and the 8th best over the past 66 years

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Contrasting week 7 against an up/down week 6 from 1950-2014

• We show the last 65 week 7s have an average 49% winning ratio and -.02% average returns
  
• For the 38 years when week 6 closed up, week 7 shows a 50% winning ratio with .12% average returns
  
• For the 27 years when week 6 closed down, week 7 shows a 48% winning ratio with -.23% average returns
• The winning ratios are below average, but there is a slight edge for week 7, when week 6 closed up
  

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For week 7, we'll contrast against the 52 weeks of the year, from 1995-2014

• We show a 50% winning ratio, which is below average, ranking in a 7-way tie for 35th
  
• We show -.27% average returns, which is below average, ranking 44th
• We show 1.14% average positive returns, which is below average, ranking 47th
• We show -1.68% average negative returns, which is above average, ranking 21st
• While closing up the last 4 of 5 years, historically, week 7 has a strong negative bias, is the 2nd weakest week of the first 13 and tied for 6th weakest week of all 52

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For week 7, we have trading days 11-14 (4-day week)

• The average 4-day winning ratio is 50%
  
• The cumulative 4-day average return is -.16%
• Presidents day is on Monday the 16th, so trading day 11 falls on a Tuesday

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For the last 11 Monday through Fridays

• Last 4 Thursdays and last 9 of 11 closed up
  
• Overall, for the S&P 500, the stats are still low with 4 of 5 days having weak winning ratios

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TSP Fund Price Performance over the past 20 days (only discussing the F/C/S/I funds)

• S-Fund ranks 1st with a 60% winning ratio and .34% average returns
  
• C&I -Funds tie for 2nd with a 65% winning ratio and .27% average returns
• F-Fund ranks 4th with a 40% winning ratio and -.04% average returns
• These are the biggest gains we've seen for the CSI funds since I started posting this chart

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Closing out this week, elation trumped trepidation, as many folks chose to enter the 3-day weekend invested. Who could blame them, this Friday the 13th put in new 52-week highs for the S&P 500 and many other indexes, it's Full-Bull-Ahead. And while the stats for week 7 do display a bearish bias, it's more important to consider the current circumstances and look for other ways to counter-balance the historical price perspective

So let's look at what happens when the S&P 500 creates new 52 week highs

• Establishing the baseline, the past 3345 weeks have a 57% winning ratio with .16% average weekly returns
  
• Of those weeks, 726 were 52 week highs
• Of those 52-week highs, the 1st following week has a 55% winning ratio with .05% average weekly returns (lower than the baseline)
• Of those 52-week highs, the 2nd following week has a 55% winning ratio with .10% average weekly returns (lower than the baseline)
• While the 2 weeks following a 52-week high are lower than the baseline, they do not hint towards making an exit

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Next, we can look at 52 week highs made during week 6 and see what happens for weeks 7 & 8

• Establishing the baseline, the past 65 week 6s have a 58% winning ratio with -.10% average weekly returns
  
• Of those weeks, 21 were 52 week highs
• Of those 52-week highs, the 1st following week has a 43% winning ratio with -.15% average weekly returns (lower than the baseline)
• Of those 52-week highs, the 2nd following week has a 62% winning ratio with .12% average weekly returns (higher than the baseline)
• Based off this data, these stats confirm week 7 has a negative bias, but also hint week 8 has a positive bias higher than week 8's baseline
  

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As for myself, February has been very kind to me, we've had 2 back-to-back historically high weeks, so I've sidelined over to the F-Fund, and with 1-IFT left, will look for the next entry.

Stay nimble…Jason