JTH

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I'm not gonna lie, that was a rough month to trade, the volatility has been extreme, this is a day trader's dream, and some folks made a boat load of cash this month, unfortunately, I wasn't one of them. But considering the circumstances, key levels held and it could have been significantly worse than the end result of what we're stuck with

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Examining unrealized potential

• If you started the year in the F-Fund
• Then started in the S-Fund on 16 Jan
• Then started in the F-Fund on 27 Jan
• Your YTD gains would be 6.67%

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Speaking on volatility

When expressed in percentage form, if we measure the S&P 500's low to high over the last 20 years (plus Jan 2015) or the past 5058 trading days.

• 11 of Jan 2015's 20 days ranked in the top 33% (meaning we did not get many flat trading days this month) or that volatility was unusually high
• 18 of the low to highs were 1% of greater, this ranks in the top 47% of those 5058 trading days, this may not seem like a lot, but this is an unusual cluster for a single month

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Wrapping up the Month of January, we closed down -3.10% which is below the .19% average monthly gain over the past 20 years


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Wrapping up week 4, we closed down -2.77% which is below the .41% average weekly gain over the past 20 years


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Looking at TSP's performance

• The F-Fund outperforms all others with a 20-day 70% winning ratio and .11% average daily gains
• Large caps lag, the C-Fund is the worst performer over the past 5 days, while the I-Fund is the best performer over the past 10 days

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Rolling into 2015, as others have, I'll point out I haven't been pleased with the performance of the stats. It is what it is, the stats are not aligned with the current price action, we are just not in sync with a statistical cycle. It's sort of like trying to trade against the trend, you can't force something which doesn't exist. Having said this, when stats are posted, it serves a dual purpose. When the stats are working it gives you a good indicator the markets are working "as expected." When they aren't working it gives you a stern warning that the price action is not in agreement with what is expected.

I'll post more on February this weekend

Trade hard…Jason