JTH

Good morning

Monday was a "rare bird" event, where we see a significant down day while the markets are breaching record highs. To put this event into context, over the last 75 days we have traded for an average of 94% within the 30, 63, 126, 252, & 500 day high/low range. Generally when we are trading above 90% we won't see a -2% or greater pullback on any single day. In fact, prior to Monday, it has only happened 4 other times over the last 20 years. Below is a Monthly chart showing those 4 rare bird events.

Attachment 23374

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For the IFT Cutoff time, Tuesday is usually the safest day to exit, but with the recent instability of the markets I wouldn't place too much trust in these stats as they tend to work better in trending markets.


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Looking at the last 25/50/100 Tuesdays we can see there is a strong positive bias. Be careful for Wednesday, while there is a slightly positive bias, the average negative returns are stronger than the positive returns. For both days combined, the positive bias still exist, and the average returns balance out fairly well. In the end, the Tuesday & Wednesday combo is one of the better setups.

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So that was all the good news, now for the crappy news...

Looking at the chart below, over the next 1, 2 & 3 days it could be good, but if it's bad it could be worst. Its difficult to impart all the data hidden from behind these stats, but one thing you should know is that this market has strong potential to move strong either up or down, over the next 3 days.

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Here's some more crappy news, the Friday & Monday down indicator has been triggered. This is a stat-strong indicator that tells us if both days close down, then there are lower closing prices to be had later in the week. I've been mapping this on charts over the last 2 years, when I have some time I'll filter the data out over a longer period of time. For now here are the last 20 occasions.

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That's all for now, trade safe...Jason

---------------------DISCLAIMER--------------------

The majority of this data is based off the S&P 500's past prices, typically over the last 20 years. If this data does not come from the S&P 500, then I will state what index it is derived from, otherwise assume it is of the same source. While most of the data is computer generated, much of it is still done by hand and is therefore subject to the occasional human error. Past data does not guarantee future results! We are all grownups here so we should already know we are each individually responsible for our own accounts, so if it doesn't work out, it's your own fault. Occasional I get PMs from newer members, asking me what to do with their accounts, so here's my answer. Find out what DCA is then do it for a long time. In the meantime read, read, read, then practice what you read, then figure out where you screwed up, then start the process all over again.